Europe & Central Asia · ARM
Armenia
Location
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-08-21 09:07 UTC · run 2026-08-21T09
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No major shifts to the youth instability baseline (23.4% male youth unemployment 15-24 in 2025; national instability fuse score 47.6/100) from developments in the ~last 60 days (roughly late June–August 21, 2026).** Recent data and events show continuity rather than escalation, with persistent challenges around job quality, youth political disengagement, and economic vulnerabilities, but no new spikes in unemployment figures, large-scale protests, security incidents, or infrastructure disruptions targeting or disproportionately affecting young men (18-35).[[1]](https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/armenia/publication/armenia-s-economic-pulse)[[1]](https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/armenia/publication/armenia-s-economic-pulse) **1. Youth/male unemployment data releases (ILO/World Bank/government):** No new Armenia-specific ILO or World Bank releases on youth (15-24) or male youth unemployment in the last 60 days. The World Bank’s *Armenia’s Economic Pulse* (Summer 2026 edition, published July 24, 2026) highlights that the core challenge is **job quality** (low-productivity, low-paying, informal work) rather than outright job creation, with poverty declining but many households vulnerable to shocks; it notes persistent youth unemployment and labor underutilization issues without providing updated percentage figures.[[1]](https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/armenia/publication/armenia-s-economic-pulse)[[1]](https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/armenia/publication/armenia-s-economic-pulse)[[2]](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/fea6e2a4-49ee-46b6-8a8d-b4eb16e76b10) Earlier modeled ILO estimates place total youth unemployment around 26.2% (2025) or 26.24% (2024), consistent with the male-specific baseline.[[3]](https://tradingeconomics.com/armenia/unemployment-youth-total-percent-of-total-labor-force-ages-15-24-wb-data.html)[[4]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Armenia) Overall unemployment was reported at 12.8% in Q1 2026 (down from 13.9% in Q1 2025).[[5]](https://caspianpost.com/opinion/armenia-s-re-export-boom-is-fading-what-comes-next-for-the-economy) **2. Political, security, or economic events affecting young men (18-35):** - **June 7, 2026 parliamentary elections** (first regular ones in nearly a decade): Civil Contract (Pashinyan) won with ~49.8% of the vote (preliminary/final figures around 49.7–56.7% depending on reporting), securing a majority; main opposition Strong Armenia took ~23.2%; turnout ~58.8–59%. Youth (18-35) represent nearly 30% of the electorate but showed notable apathy—49% of 18-35 voters described themselves as “uninterested in politics” (IRI poll, May 2026). Only ~20% of Pashinyan supporters were in the 18-25 group; 42% of 18-25 voters were undecided pre-election. Young voters leaned pro-Western (58% favoring that foreign policy direction per the same IRI poll). No reports of major post-election protests, violence, coup attempts, or militia activity linked to youth.[[6]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Armenian_parliamentary_election)[[7]](https://www.reuters.com/world/armenias-ruling-party-leads-parliamentary-vote-with-57-early-results-2026-06-07/)[[8]](https://evnreport.com/elections/armenias-youth-political-vacuum/)[[8]](https://evnreport.com/elections/armenias-youth-political-vacuum/) - Economic context: Growth slowed (Q1 2026 GDP growth 4.0% real vs. higher prior years); re-export boom fading; inflation pressures rising (consumer prices +4.2% YoY in Q1; producer prices +9.2%). No currency crisis or acute shocks reported. Labor market showed salaried employment growth over longer term but ongoing quality issues.[[5]](https://caspianpost.com/opinion/armenia-s-re-export-boom-is-fading-what-comes-next-for-the-economy) **3. NGO/academic reports on youth situation (published 2025 or later):** - BTI 2026 Armenia Country Report (Bertelsmann Transformation Index) covers broader governance, economic, and social issues, noting challenges like polarization and youth-related themes indirectly through democratic participation.[[9]](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/ARM) - June 16, 2026 reporting on education reforms highlighted persistent inequalities (e.g., only 17.2% of poor hold higher education degrees; heavy reliance on tuition fees; declining academic freedom index).[[10]](https://armenianweekly.com/2026/06/16/armenias-education-reforms-fall-short-as-system-continues-to-fail/) - A new Youth Policy Law was enacted March 5, 2025, providing a legal framework for youth participation and development (not a 2025 publication per se).[[11]](https://csometer.info/updates/armenia-new-law-youth-policy-significant-step-youth-development-and-participation) No reports in results flagged acute new instability hotspots for youth. **4. Internet/mobile infrastructure changes:** - Positive development: On June 23, 2026, Telecom Armenia and Azertelecom signed agreements for mutual routing of internet traffic (up to 100 Gbps via infrastructure), expanding connectivity options as part of broader regional dynamics—no shutdowns involved.[[12]](https://sovanews.tv/en/2026/06/23/armenia-and-azerbaijan-sign-internet-traffic-transit-agreement/)[[13]](https://oc-media.org/armenia-and-azerbaijan-sign-internet-traffic-transit-agreement/) - 2G network shutdown completed by Team Telecom Armenia on April 10, 2026 (outside the 60-day window; shift toward 4G/5G).[[14]](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/team-telecom-armenia-completes-2g-shutdown/) No shutdowns, coverage losses, or negative access changes reported in the period. **Summary flag:** Nothing in the last 60 days indicates a significant worsening of the instability picture. Youth political disengagement and job quality concerns remain relevant themes, but the June elections occurred without major youth-driven unrest, and economic reporting emphasizes resilience alongside structural issues. Continued monitoring of post-election dynamics and any Q2/Q3 2026 labor data would be warranted. Sources include World Bank, IRI polls, election commission reporting via Reuters/EVN Report/Wikipedia, and others as cited.
Source discovery
**Armstat (Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia)** - **URL**: https://armstat.am/en/ (databases/time series at armstat.am/en/?nid=13 or similar; SDG portal sdg.armstat.am; microdata library) - **API**: No (primarily web downloads, time series tables, CSV/Excel exports on SDG pages and reports) - **Update frequency**: Monthly/quarterly releases for labor/unemployment (e.g., quarterly averages); annual reports - **Auth required**: None (public downloads) **Central Bank of Armenia (CBA)** - **URL**: https://www.cba.am/ (statistical data/reports section; exchange rates retrieval) - **API**: Partial (exchange rates via SOAP/REST endpoints like api.cba.am; other stats via Excel downloads and reports) - **Update frequency**: Daily/periodic for rates; quarterly/annual for economic/labor indicators (unemployment data often referenced) - **Auth required**: None (public) **ADB Key Indicators – Armenia** - **URL**: https://data.adb.org/dataset/armenia-key-indicators (or kidb.adb.org) - **API**: No (XLSX/PDF downloads) - **Update frequency**: Annually (covers 2000–2024; includes labor force, employment, poverty indicators) - **Auth required**: None (public, CC-BY license) **Open Data Armenia / opendata.am** - **URL**: https://data.opendata.am/ (aggregates Armstat/World Bank indicators; some CSV/XML/Excel) - **API**: Partial (dataset-level downloads; limited structured API noted) - **Update frequency**: Varies by source (Armstat-aligned indicators) - **Auth required**: None (public) **Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX) – Armenia** - **URL**: https://data.humdata.org/group/arm - **API**: Partial (HDX platform supports API access for many datasets; browse/search/download primary) - **Update frequency**: Varies (crisis/poverty/humanitarian datasets from multiple orgs) - **Auth required**: None (public; some datasets may require registration) **Armenia News RSS Feeds (e.g., PanARMENIAN.Net, Hetq, 1in.am, Armenian Weekly)** - **URL**: Various (e.g., via rss.feedspot.com/armenia_news_rss_feeds/ or direct site feeds) - **API**: No (standard RSS/Atom feeds) - **Update frequency**: As published (daily/ongoing news coverage) - **Auth required**: None (public feeds) These focus on direct, machine-readable or downloadable sources beyond the listed global ones (World Bank, ACLED, etc.). Armstat and CBA provide the most relevant labor/economic granularity for Armenia; regional (ADB) adds ECA/Central Asia context. Verify current endpoints and licenses directly, as structures can evolve.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2024 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2024
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2025
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025