Europe & Central Asia · BIH

Bosnia and Herzegovina

29
Composite priority
26.5%
Male youth unemployment · 2025
3.14M
Population · 2025
64.3%
Ages 15-64 · 2025
1.2 per 100k
Homicides · 2023

Location

43.86°, 18.42° · ISO BIH / BAOpen in OpenStreetMap →

Priority breakdown

0 = lowest · 100 = highest

Male youth unemployment26.5%· 70p
2025
Intentional homicides1.2 per 100k· 3p
2023
Internet access86.1%· 15p
2024
Mobile subscriptions121.2 per 100· 46p
2024
Phone ownership87.9%· 25p
2023
Electricity access100.0%· 0p
2024
AI usage21.5%· 15p
2024 · est.

Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.

Trajectory

20152026 · replay

How the scores moved.

Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.

Fuse 13.1p vs 2021
43
Access gap 6.6p vs 2021
20
Impact 9.3p vs 2021
30

Latest signals

2026-07-05 06:00 UTC · run 2026-07-05T06

What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.

Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.

Signals
**No major new developments in the last ~60 days (roughly early May to early July 2026) significantly alter the baseline youth instability picture for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH).** Youth unemployment remains high and consistent with or slightly above the cited 26.5% (15-24 male, national, 2025) figure; political tensions are ongoing but not marked by acute youth-specific events like protests or recruitment drives targeting young men (18-35); NGO/academic reports are from earlier in 2025 with no notable new 2025/2026 releases; and internet/mobile issues are limited to minor, short outages without evidence of deliberate shutdowns or major infrastructure shifts.[[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSBIH)[[2]](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/bih/bosnia/youth-unemployment-rate)

**1. Youth/male unemployment data releases (government, ILO, World Bank):**  
No fresh modeled ILO or World Bank estimates for 2026 youth unemployment (total or male-specific) appear in recent releases. FRED/World Bank-modeled data continue to show total youth (15-24) unemployment at 28.2% for 2025 (up slightly from 27.3% in 2024).[[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSBIH)[[2]](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/bih/bosnia/youth-unemployment-rate)  

BIH Agency for Statistics (BHAS) released registered unemployment data for April 2026 on June 22, 2026 (total figures; youth breakdowns not highlighted in summaries). The Labour and Employment Agency (ARZ) overview as of April 30, 2026, reported 309,823 registered unemployed nationally, with a note on youth (15-24) rates but no updated public percentage in available summaries. Q1 2026 total unemployment stood at 11.4% (up from 11.1% prior). Earlier 2025 labor force survey data (cited in 2026 policy overviews) showed youth unemployment (15-24) at ~30.2% in Q1 2025 and ~33.5% in Q3 2025.[[3]](https://bhas.gov.ba/Calendar/Category/13?lang=en)[[4]](https://arz.gov.ba/en/portal/post/labour-market-overview-30-april-2026--1780399076917)[[5]](https://national-policies.eacea.ec.europa.eu/youthwiki/chapters/bosnia-and-herzegovina/31-general-context)  

These figures align with the baseline and do not indicate a sharp recent deterioration or improvement. ILO and World Bank sources continue to flag persistently high youth unemployment and NEET rates as structural issues, with no 2026-specific updates flagged in the results.

**2. Political, security, or economic events affecting young men (18-35):**  
No reports of protests, coup attempts, militia recruitment, or acute economic shocks (e.g., currency crises) specifically tied to or disproportionately affecting young men in May–early July 2026. Broader political tensions persist around Republika Srpska (RS) secessionist rhetoric, the legacy of the 2025 Dodik trial/verdict, and preparations for October 2026 general elections, with mentions of rising ethnically divisive narratives. Security assessments describe the overall situation as stable but note ongoing fragility and institutional blockages.[[6]](https://hansard.parliament.uk/Lords/2026-06-11/debates/87FFA34E-E912-46C5-9C93-5B673705B06E/BosniaAndHerzegovina)[[7]](https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-05/bosnia-and-herzegovina-15.php)[[8]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzL_UxVw5n4)  

Earlier 2026 protests (e.g., March in Sarajevo linked to a tram accident) were not youth- or male-specific instability events. No new economic shocks or recruitment indicators emerged in the searched period.

**3. NGO or academic reports on youth situation (published 2025):**  
Notable 2025 reports include UNICEF’s *Voices of Youth 2024* (published May 23, 2025), based on a survey of 2,163 young people covering education, employment, mental health, and social challenges; and a UNDP piece on youth aspirations/frustrations (August 2025). No significant new NGO or academic reports from 2025 (or 2026) were identified in the recent search window.[[9]](https://www.unicef.org/bih/en/reports/voices-youth-2024-insights-bosnia-and-herzegovina)[[10]](https://bosniaherzegovina.un.org/en/299689-youth-bosnia-and-herzegovina-aspirations-frustrations-and-futures)

**4. Internet/mobile infrastructure changes:**  
No national internet or mobile shutdowns reported. Minor, short-duration outages were detected (e.g., May 3 and May 17, 2026, with one localized to areas like Tuzla), consistent with technical issues rather than deliberate actions.[[11]](https://voidly.ai/incident/ac336f29cf12)[[12]](https://voidly.ai/incident/BA-2026-0032) 5G rollout continues gradually in urban centers (Sarajevo, Banja Luka) since earlier years, with generally reliable 4G coverage in cities and variable rural service; no major new national rollouts or coverage changes noted in the period.[[13]](https://thingstodoinbosnia.com/connectivity/)

**Summary flag:** Nothing identified would materially shift the baseline instability fuse score or youth unemployment picture. Persistent high youth unemployment and political tensions remain structural concerns, but recent data and events show continuity rather than escalation. For precise youth male breakdowns, the next BHAS/ARZ labor force survey releases would be the key source to monitor.
Source discovery
**Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BHAS / bhas.gov.ba)**  
- URL: https://bhas.gov.ba/ (labor market section: https://bhas.gov.ba/Calendar/Category/13?lang=en)  
- API: No (PDFs, tables, and some time-series downloads)  
- Update frequency: Monthly/quarterly (e.g., registered unemployment, labor force survey results)  
- Auth required: None (free public access)[[1]](https://bhas.gov.ba/Calendar/Category/13?lang=en)

**Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) Statistics Web Portal**  
- URL: https://www.cbbh.ba/ (statistics portal section)  
- API: Partial (web portal with data access and downloads; limited programmatic access noted in documentation)  
- Update frequency: Regular (monetary, financial, and some economic indicators)  
- Auth required: None (free)[[2]](https://www.cbbh.ba/content/read/915)

**Bosnia and Herzegovina Labor and Employment Agency (ARZ / arz.gov.ba)**  
- URL: https://arz.gov.ba/ (statistics section)  
- API: No (web tables and reports on registered unemployment/employment)  
- Update frequency: Monthly  
- Auth required: None (free)[[3]](https://national-policies.eacea.ec.europa.eu/youthwiki/chapters/bosnia-and-herzegovina/31-general-context)

**ILOSTAT (Europe & Central Asia regional coverage)**  
- URL: https://ilostat.ilo.org/ (country profile: https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/country-profiles/bih/)  
- API: Yes (bulk downloads and API access available)  
- Update frequency: Regular (annual/quarterly labor force, unemployment, youth indicators)  
- Auth required: None (free)[[4]](https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/europe-and-central-asia/)

**UNECE Statistical Database (Europe & Central Asia)**  
- URL: https://w3.unece.org/CountriesInFigures/en/Home/Index?countryCode=070  
- API: No (web database with downloads/tables)  
- Update frequency: Periodic (labor, youth unemployment, economic indicators)  
- Auth required: None (free)[[5]](https://w3.unece.org/CountriesInFigures/en/Home/Index?countryCode=070)

**Eurostat (candidate country data for Europe)**  
- URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ (search for Bosnia and Herzegovina labor/unemployment)  
- API: Yes (REST API and bulk downloads)  
- Update frequency: Regular (monthly/annual where available)  
- Auth required: None (free)

**Reliable local/regional news RSS feeds (examples)**  
- URLs: Mondo RSS, Nezavisne novine RSS, Fokus RSS, Slobodna Bosna RSS, Haber.ba RSS (full list at feedspot.com/bosnia_and_herzegovina_news_rss_feeds)  
- API: Partial (RSS feeds function as lightweight syndication)  
- Update frequency: Real-time/daily  
- Auth required: None (free)[[6]](https://rss.feedspot.com/bosnia_and_herzegovina_news_rss_feeds/)

**NewsData.io or World News API (BiH-specific news aggregation)**  
- URL: https://newsdata.io/ or https://worldnewsapi.com/ (BiH sources)  
- API: Yes  
- Update frequency: Real-time/daily  
- Auth required: Free tier or paid (API keys typically required)[[7]](https://worldnewsapi.com/docs/news-sources/bosnia-and-herzegovina-news-api/)

**UNDP Data Futures Exchange / Human Development Reports (BiH country data)**  
- URL: https://data.undp.org/countries-and-territories/BIH or https://hdr.undp.org/data-center  
- API: Partial (data portal with downloads; some API access reported historically)  
- Update frequency: Annual/periodic (poverty, youth, HDI, inequality indicators)  
- Auth required: None (free)[[8]](https://data.undp.org/countries-and-territories/BIH)

These focus on direct or downloadable data for youth-relevant indicators (labor/unemployment, economic, poverty/crisis) in BiH, excluding modeled/inferred sources where possible. BHAS and CBBH provide the most country-specific primary data.

Full run history: /sources

Trends · 2014–2026

Each dimension, over time.

Male youth unemployment

%
22.744.265.62014202526.5%

Intentional homicides

per 100k
0.51.32.1201420231.2

Internet access

%
47.068.089.02014202486.1%

Mobile subscriptions

per 100
96.0109.6123.120142024121.2

Phone ownership

%
No data

Electricity access

%
99.299.8100.520142024100.0%

AI usage

%
11.817.022.22014202421.5%

Population

people
3106116.33352462.03598807.7201420253140095.0

Working-age share

%
63.866.569.22014202564.3%

Provenance

Where the numbers come from.

Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.