Europe & Central Asia · BIH
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Location
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-07-05 06:00 UTC · run 2026-07-05T06
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No major new developments in the last ~60 days (roughly early May to early July 2026) significantly alter the baseline youth instability picture for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH).** Youth unemployment remains high and consistent with or slightly above the cited 26.5% (15-24 male, national, 2025) figure; political tensions are ongoing but not marked by acute youth-specific events like protests or recruitment drives targeting young men (18-35); NGO/academic reports are from earlier in 2025 with no notable new 2025/2026 releases; and internet/mobile issues are limited to minor, short outages without evidence of deliberate shutdowns or major infrastructure shifts.[[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSBIH)[[2]](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/bih/bosnia/youth-unemployment-rate) **1. Youth/male unemployment data releases (government, ILO, World Bank):** No fresh modeled ILO or World Bank estimates for 2026 youth unemployment (total or male-specific) appear in recent releases. FRED/World Bank-modeled data continue to show total youth (15-24) unemployment at 28.2% for 2025 (up slightly from 27.3% in 2024).[[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSBIH)[[2]](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/bih/bosnia/youth-unemployment-rate) BIH Agency for Statistics (BHAS) released registered unemployment data for April 2026 on June 22, 2026 (total figures; youth breakdowns not highlighted in summaries). The Labour and Employment Agency (ARZ) overview as of April 30, 2026, reported 309,823 registered unemployed nationally, with a note on youth (15-24) rates but no updated public percentage in available summaries. Q1 2026 total unemployment stood at 11.4% (up from 11.1% prior). Earlier 2025 labor force survey data (cited in 2026 policy overviews) showed youth unemployment (15-24) at ~30.2% in Q1 2025 and ~33.5% in Q3 2025.[[3]](https://bhas.gov.ba/Calendar/Category/13?lang=en)[[4]](https://arz.gov.ba/en/portal/post/labour-market-overview-30-april-2026--1780399076917)[[5]](https://national-policies.eacea.ec.europa.eu/youthwiki/chapters/bosnia-and-herzegovina/31-general-context) These figures align with the baseline and do not indicate a sharp recent deterioration or improvement. ILO and World Bank sources continue to flag persistently high youth unemployment and NEET rates as structural issues, with no 2026-specific updates flagged in the results. **2. Political, security, or economic events affecting young men (18-35):** No reports of protests, coup attempts, militia recruitment, or acute economic shocks (e.g., currency crises) specifically tied to or disproportionately affecting young men in May–early July 2026. Broader political tensions persist around Republika Srpska (RS) secessionist rhetoric, the legacy of the 2025 Dodik trial/verdict, and preparations for October 2026 general elections, with mentions of rising ethnically divisive narratives. Security assessments describe the overall situation as stable but note ongoing fragility and institutional blockages.[[6]](https://hansard.parliament.uk/Lords/2026-06-11/debates/87FFA34E-E912-46C5-9C93-5B673705B06E/BosniaAndHerzegovina)[[7]](https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-05/bosnia-and-herzegovina-15.php)[[8]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzL_UxVw5n4) Earlier 2026 protests (e.g., March in Sarajevo linked to a tram accident) were not youth- or male-specific instability events. No new economic shocks or recruitment indicators emerged in the searched period. **3. NGO or academic reports on youth situation (published 2025):** Notable 2025 reports include UNICEF’s *Voices of Youth 2024* (published May 23, 2025), based on a survey of 2,163 young people covering education, employment, mental health, and social challenges; and a UNDP piece on youth aspirations/frustrations (August 2025). No significant new NGO or academic reports from 2025 (or 2026) were identified in the recent search window.[[9]](https://www.unicef.org/bih/en/reports/voices-youth-2024-insights-bosnia-and-herzegovina)[[10]](https://bosniaherzegovina.un.org/en/299689-youth-bosnia-and-herzegovina-aspirations-frustrations-and-futures) **4. Internet/mobile infrastructure changes:** No national internet or mobile shutdowns reported. Minor, short-duration outages were detected (e.g., May 3 and May 17, 2026, with one localized to areas like Tuzla), consistent with technical issues rather than deliberate actions.[[11]](https://voidly.ai/incident/ac336f29cf12)[[12]](https://voidly.ai/incident/BA-2026-0032) 5G rollout continues gradually in urban centers (Sarajevo, Banja Luka) since earlier years, with generally reliable 4G coverage in cities and variable rural service; no major new national rollouts or coverage changes noted in the period.[[13]](https://thingstodoinbosnia.com/connectivity/) **Summary flag:** Nothing identified would materially shift the baseline instability fuse score or youth unemployment picture. Persistent high youth unemployment and political tensions remain structural concerns, but recent data and events show continuity rather than escalation. For precise youth male breakdowns, the next BHAS/ARZ labor force survey releases would be the key source to monitor.
Source discovery
**Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BHAS / bhas.gov.ba)** - URL: https://bhas.gov.ba/ (labor market section: https://bhas.gov.ba/Calendar/Category/13?lang=en) - API: No (PDFs, tables, and some time-series downloads) - Update frequency: Monthly/quarterly (e.g., registered unemployment, labor force survey results) - Auth required: None (free public access)[[1]](https://bhas.gov.ba/Calendar/Category/13?lang=en) **Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) Statistics Web Portal** - URL: https://www.cbbh.ba/ (statistics portal section) - API: Partial (web portal with data access and downloads; limited programmatic access noted in documentation) - Update frequency: Regular (monetary, financial, and some economic indicators) - Auth required: None (free)[[2]](https://www.cbbh.ba/content/read/915) **Bosnia and Herzegovina Labor and Employment Agency (ARZ / arz.gov.ba)** - URL: https://arz.gov.ba/ (statistics section) - API: No (web tables and reports on registered unemployment/employment) - Update frequency: Monthly - Auth required: None (free)[[3]](https://national-policies.eacea.ec.europa.eu/youthwiki/chapters/bosnia-and-herzegovina/31-general-context) **ILOSTAT (Europe & Central Asia regional coverage)** - URL: https://ilostat.ilo.org/ (country profile: https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/country-profiles/bih/) - API: Yes (bulk downloads and API access available) - Update frequency: Regular (annual/quarterly labor force, unemployment, youth indicators) - Auth required: None (free)[[4]](https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/europe-and-central-asia/) **UNECE Statistical Database (Europe & Central Asia)** - URL: https://w3.unece.org/CountriesInFigures/en/Home/Index?countryCode=070 - API: No (web database with downloads/tables) - Update frequency: Periodic (labor, youth unemployment, economic indicators) - Auth required: None (free)[[5]](https://w3.unece.org/CountriesInFigures/en/Home/Index?countryCode=070) **Eurostat (candidate country data for Europe)** - URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ (search for Bosnia and Herzegovina labor/unemployment) - API: Yes (REST API and bulk downloads) - Update frequency: Regular (monthly/annual where available) - Auth required: None (free) **Reliable local/regional news RSS feeds (examples)** - URLs: Mondo RSS, Nezavisne novine RSS, Fokus RSS, Slobodna Bosna RSS, Haber.ba RSS (full list at feedspot.com/bosnia_and_herzegovina_news_rss_feeds) - API: Partial (RSS feeds function as lightweight syndication) - Update frequency: Real-time/daily - Auth required: None (free)[[6]](https://rss.feedspot.com/bosnia_and_herzegovina_news_rss_feeds/) **NewsData.io or World News API (BiH-specific news aggregation)** - URL: https://newsdata.io/ or https://worldnewsapi.com/ (BiH sources) - API: Yes - Update frequency: Real-time/daily - Auth required: Free tier or paid (API keys typically required)[[7]](https://worldnewsapi.com/docs/news-sources/bosnia-and-herzegovina-news-api/) **UNDP Data Futures Exchange / Human Development Reports (BiH country data)** - URL: https://data.undp.org/countries-and-territories/BIH or https://hdr.undp.org/data-center - API: Partial (data portal with downloads; some API access reported historically) - Update frequency: Annual/periodic (poverty, youth, HDI, inequality indicators) - Auth required: None (free)[[8]](https://data.undp.org/countries-and-territories/BIH) These focus on direct or downloadable data for youth-relevant indicators (labor/unemployment, economic, poverty/crisis) in BiH, excluding modeled/inferred sources where possible. BHAS and CBBH provide the most country-specific primary data.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2024 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2024
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025