Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan · EGY-CAI · Metro of Egypt, Arab Rep.
CairoMetro
Location
Structural indicators below are national values for Egypt, Arab Rep.. World Bank / ILO don't publish city-level series. The metro pin exists so signals-agent runs can scope live web search to Cairo specifically. City-radius event filtering (ACLED) is on the roadmap.Why this metro: 21M+ metro; Egypt youth unemployment masked in national figures
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-06-27 12:00 UTC · run 2026-06-27T12
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No significant Cairo metro-specific developments in the last 60 days (approx. late April–June 27, 2026) that would shift the youth instability picture from the provided national baseline (youth unemployment 15-24 male: 12.9% in 2025; national instability fuse score: 18.4/100).** All available data remains national or urban/rural aggregated, with no granular Cairo governorate or Greater Cairo metropolitan statistics identified.[[1]](https://www.facebook.com/EgyptTodayMag/posts/egypts-unemployment-rate-declined-to-6-of-the-total-labor-force-during-the-first/1444268531048798/)[[2]](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/147185/Unemployment-rate-in-Egypt-declines-to-6-in-Q1-2026) **1. Local labor market/unemployment data (Cairo metro-specific):** None found. CAPMAS Q1 2026 national report (released ~May 15, 2026) shows overall unemployment at 6.0% (down from 6.2% in Q4 2025), with urban unemployment at 8.4% (improved from 9.7%). Labor force grew to 35.412 million (+1.7%), adding ~583,000 entrants. No youth (15-24) or male-specific breakdowns, and no Cairo/provincial disaggregation. Earlier national youth unemployment (15-24 total) estimates hover around 18.3% (2025 modeled data). Greater Cairo events (e.g., job fairs or training) are promotional rather than data-driven.[[1]](https://www.facebook.com/EgyptTodayMag/posts/egypts-unemployment-rate-declined-to-6-of-the-total-labor-force-during-the-first/1444268531048798/)[[2]](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/147185/Unemployment-rate-in-Egypt-declines-to-6-in-Q1-2026)[[3]](https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/568032.aspx) **2. Political/security/economic events affecting young men (18-35) in Cairo:** No reports of protests, militia activity, mass layoffs, or major economic shocks specific to Cairo in the period. Broader analyses (e.g., SWP March 2026 report) note ongoing repression, digital controls, and emigration suppressing youth-led protests nationally, with no large-scale events on/around key dates like Jan. 25, 2026. Small-scale or staged actions (often pro-government or Gaza-related) have occurred in prior years but not recently in Cairo metro. Economic pressures remain national.[[4]](https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/mta-spotlight-68-egypts-youth-under-president-al-sisi) **3. NGO/think-tank reports on Cairo youth (2025 publications):** No new Cairo-focused reports surfaced in the last 60 days. Relevant earlier/national items include: - ERF-World Bank Development Dialogue (Jan. 20, 2026) on Egypt’s youth jobs challenge (national; notes need for 1.5M annual jobs vs. ~600k created historically). - SWP Megatrends Spotlight (March 23, 2026) on Egypt’s youth under al-Sisi (national; highlights socio-economic risks but suppressed mobilization). - BTI 2026 Egypt Country Report (national; covers economic malaise and restricted civic space, with minor past protests in Cairo informal areas).[[5]](https://theforum.erf.org.eg/2026/01/19/empowering-egypts-young-people-for-the-future-of-work/)[[4]](https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/mta-spotlight-68-egypts-youth-under-president-al-sisi) **4. Internet/mobile infrastructure changes in Cairo:** No new shutdowns, rollouts, or major outages in the last 60 days. A notable past incident (Ramses Exchange fire, July 2025) caused widespread Greater Cairo and national disruptions but is outside the window. Recent social media mentions of minor landline/mobile issues in Greater Cairo appear tied to older or unrelated events.[[6]](https://www.instagram.com/p/DL0DgKatm80/?hl=en) **Overall assessment:** National urban unemployment trends show modest improvement, but the lack of Cairo-specific youth data and absence of localized triggers (protests, layoffs, infrastructure shocks) suggest stability relative to baseline. No flagged escalatory developments. Sources are primarily CAPMAS via Egypt Today/Ahram (May 2026) and think-tank analyses from early-mid 2026. Further monitoring of CAPMAS releases or local Cairo governorate data recommended for metro granularity.
Source discovery
**CAPMAS (Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics) – Labor Force Survey / Annual Bulletins and other sub-national releases** - URL: https://www.capmas.gov.eg/ (or censusinfo.capmas.gov.eg for metadata/catalog) - API: No (public downloads or registration-required microdata via partners) - Update frequency: Quarterly/annual (LFS bulletins; governorate-level aggregates) - Auth required: None for aggregates; free registration for microdata via ERF/OAMDI - Geographic granularity: Governorate (Cairo Governorate / urban Cairo disaggregation available in LFS)[[1]](https://ghdx.healthdata.org/organizations/central-agency-public-mobilization-and-statistics-capmas-egypt)[[2]](https://www.erfdataportal.com/index.php/catalog/305) **Cairo Governorate Official Portal – Statistics section** - URL: http://cairo.gov.eg/en/Pages/Statistics.aspx?SubmID=168 (Arabic version also available) - API: No - Update frequency: Ad hoc / periodic (population estimates, density, age/sex breakdowns as of mid-2025 shown in PDFs) - Auth required: None - Geographic granularity: Cairo Governorate / neighborhoods (district-level population density, age groups)[[3]](http://cairo.gov.eg/en/Pages/Statistics.aspx?SubmID=168) **Ministry of Planning and Economic Development – National Accounts / Regional GDP** - URL: https://mped.gov.eg/Analytics?lang=en (GDP by Governorate interactive tool) - API: No (interactive web queries/downloads) - Update frequency: Annual - Auth required: None - Geographic granularity: Governorate/economic regions (Cairo-specific GDP by activity)[[4]](https://mped.gov.eg/Analytics?lang=en) **Economic Research Forum (ERF) Data Portal – Harmonized Labor Force Surveys (LFS) and Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys (ELMPS)** - URL: https://www.erfdataportal.com/ - API: No (microdata downloads after registration) - Update frequency: Annual/periodic (LFS quarterly aggregates; panel waves) - Auth required: Free registration + data access agreement - Geographic granularity: All governorates (including Cairo); urban/rural and individual-level variables for labor/unemployment/youth analysis[[2]](https://www.erfdataportal.com/index.php/catalog/305)[[2]](https://www.erfdataportal.com/index.php/catalog/305) **ACLED (via admin boundaries and event data)** - URL: https://acleddata.com/ (Egypt country page); boundaries via HDX https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-egy - API: Partial (ACLED API available with free/paid tiers; boundaries downloadable as GeoJSON/SHP) - Update frequency: Real-time/weekly updates for events; boundaries static or periodic revisions - Auth required: Free registration for ACLED API/data; none for HDX boundaries - Geographic granularity: Admin1 (Cairo Governorate as distinct admin1 unit); finer admin2/3 districts available for filtering Cairo events[[5]](https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-egy)[[6]](https://acleddata.com/data-use-guide/acled-administrative-divisions) **Youm7 and Al-Ahram (Arabic) – RSS feeds for local Cairo coverage** - URLs: Youm7 (https://www.youm7.com/); Al-Ahram (http://www.ahram.org.eg/ or English mirror) - API: No (standard RSS feeds) - Update frequency: Real-time / multiple times daily - Auth required: None - Geographic granularity: National with strong Cairo/Egypt focus (politics, economy, local events, youth/social issues)[[7]](https://rss.feedspot.com/egyptian_news_rss_feeds/) **Population Council – Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE) and related urban/Cairo studies** - URL: https://popcouncil.org/project/survey-of-young-people-in-egypt/ - API: No (reports + data access via request/registration) - Update frequency: Periodic waves (2009, 2014, 2016+; Greater Cairo/informal urban focus in later waves) - Auth required: None for reports; registration/request for microdata - Geographic granularity: National + Greater Cairo / urban informal areas (youth employment, education, poverty, attitudes)[[8]](https://popcouncil.org/project/survey-of-young-people-in-egypt/) **HDX / COD-AB – Egypt Subnational Administrative Boundaries (for ACLED or other geo-filtering)** - URL: https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-egy - API: No (direct downloads: GeoJSON, SHP, etc.) - Update frequency: Periodic (latest version ~2026) - Auth required: None - Geographic granularity: Admin 0–3 (Admin1 = 27 governorates including Cairo; Admin2/3 for districts within Cairo Governorate)[[5]](https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-egy) These sources emphasize publicly accessible or low-barrier machine-readable or downloadable data at the governorate or sub-governorate level for Cairo. Most lack modern REST APIs; data is typically obtained via downloads, interactive portals, or RSS. Labor and demographic data are strongest via CAPMAS/ERF at governorate resolution. No dedicated municipal open-data API for Cairo was identified beyond the governorate portal’s static PDFs.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2023 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2024 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2024 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2023
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2024
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2024
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025