Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan · IRQ

Iraq

46
Composite priority
28.1%
Male youth unemployment · 2025
47.02M
Population · 2025
60.5%
Ages 15-64 · 2025
Homicides ·

Location

33.33°, 44.39° · ISO IRQ / IQOpen in OpenStreetMap →

Priority breakdown

0 = lowest · 100 = highest

Male youth unemployment28.1%· 74p
2025
Intentional homicides
Internet access81.5%· 21p
2024
Mobile subscriptions100.1 per 100· 63p
2024
Phone ownership72.5%· 61p
2022
Electricity access100.0%· 0p
2024
AI usage20.4%· 20p
2024 · est.

Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.

Trajectory

20152026 · replay

How the scores moved.

Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.

Fuse 8.8p vs 2021
79
Access gap 4.4p vs 2021
33
Impact 6.2p vs 2021
51

Latest signals

2026-08-04 09:07 UTC · run 2026-08-04T09

What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.

Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.

Signals
**No new government, ILO, or World Bank data releases on youth or male unemployment in Iraq appear in the last 60 days (roughly June 5–August 4, 2026).** Latest available modeled ILO estimates (accessed January 2026, covering up to 2025 data) show youth unemployment (total, ages 15-24) at approximately 32% for 2025 (e.g., FRED/World Bank data: 32.012% in 2025, up slightly from 31.726% in 2024).[[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSIRQ)[[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSIRQ) Male-specific figures align with the provided baseline of 28.1% (national estimate, 15-24). An ILO-supported expansion of job search clubs and National Employment Policy was noted earlier in 2026 but not updated recently.[[2]](https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iraq-expands-nationwide-job-search-support-address-youth-unemployment-enar)[[3]](https://www.ilo.org/resource/news/iraq-expands-nationwide-job-search-support-address-youth-unemployment)

**Significant political, security, and economic events affecting young men (18-35) include ongoing regional conflict spillover.** In July 2026, renewed US-Iran hostilities led to drone attacks (e.g., on Iranian Kurdish refugee camps near Erbil on July 13 and 15), US/Saudi airstrikes on PMF (Popular Mobilization Forces/militia) facilities (July 27–28, killing PMF members and Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel), and reaffirmations of commitment by groups like Islamic Resistance in Iraq.[[4]](https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iraq) Iraq faced major oil revenue losses estimated at $40–45 billion up to June 2026 due to disruptions (including Strait of Hormuz issues and attacks on southern fields).[[4]](https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iraq)[[5]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_2026_Iran_war) New Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi faces a September 2026 deadline to disarm pro-Iran militias amid US pressure.[[6]](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/political-instability-iraq) Late June saw over 50 MPs resign from the Kurdistan regional parliament protesting a federal court ruling.[[6]](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/political-instability-iraq) These developments heighten risks of militia recruitment, protests, or unrest among young men amid economic shocks and austerity measures tied to lower oil prices.[[7]](https://enablingpeace.org/ten-key-stories-to-watch-in-iraq-in-2026/)

**No notable new NGO or academic reports specifically on Iraq’s youth situation published in 2025 were identified in recent searches.** Broader references include the HRW World Report 2026 (noting fragile stability, repression, and November 2025 elections) and general ILO global employment trends projecting slight youth unemployment declines in some contexts but not Iraq-specific updates.[[8]](https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2026/country-chapters/iraq)

**Internet/mobile infrastructure saw only short, recurring exam-related shutdowns in June 2026 (June 2, 11, and 28), each lasting about 90 minutes, consistent with prior seasonal patterns; no major long-term shutdowns, new nationwide rollouts, or coverage changes reported.**[[9]](https://blog.cloudflare.com/q2-2026-internet-disruption-summary/) Late 2025 data (Digital 2026: Iraq) showed high penetration—83.8% internet users, 108% mobile connections (with 86.2% broadband-capable), and 84.9% social media user identities.[[10]](https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-iraq)

**Flag for significant shift:** July 2026 conflict escalation, airstrikes, militia activities, and substantial oil revenue losses ($40–45bn) represent a notable deterioration in the security and economic environment. This could elevate the national instability fuse score above the 79.3/100 baseline and increase risks of youth (particularly male) involvement in militias, protests, or economic distress, even without updated unemployment figures. No direct new data contradicts the 28.1% male youth unemployment baseline.
Source discovery
**Iraq-specific or highly relevant non-inference data sources (focusing on labor/unemployment, youth/economic indicators, and related instability factors).** These supplement the listed sources (World Bank, ACLED, etc.). Details are based on official sites and portals; most lack dedicated public APIs and rely on downloads, tables, or reports.[[1]](https://www.cosit.gov.iq/ar/)[[2]](https://cbi.iq/language/change/english/https:----cbi.iq--news--section--90--)

- **Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology (COSIT, formerly CSO)**: National statistics bureau. URL: https://www.cosit.gov.iq/ (Arabic; English sections limited). API: No. Update frequency: Varies (surveys like Labour Force Survey periodically; annual/monthly indicators where available). Auth required: None (public site with topic-specific statistics sections, infographics, and likely downloadable tables/PDFs/Excel under categories like living conditions, national accounts, prices, and employment-related data). Covers unemployment/labor via household surveys and economic indicators.[[1]](https://www.cosit.gov.iq/ar/)[[3]](https://researchrepository.ilo.org/esploro/outputs/report/Iraq-Labour-Force-Survey-2021/995219159702676)

- **Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)**: Central bank data on economic/financial indicators. URL: https://cbi.iq/. API: No. Update frequency: Monthly (e.g., statistical bulletins, key financial indicators) and annual (Economic Report, Statistical Bulletin). Auth required: None (public access to tables, indicators on GDP, inflation, employment proxies, exchange rates, balance of payments, and interest rates; downloadable PDFs/reports). Useful for youth employment/economic context.[[2]](https://cbi.iq/language/change/english/https:----cbi.iq--news--section--90--)[[4]](https://cbi.iq/static/uploads/up/file-173563991524858.pdf)

- **UN ESCWA Arab Development Portal (ADP)**: Regional database for Arab/MENA countries (includes Iraq breakdowns; covers broader MENA/Afghanistan/Pakistan context via related UN data). URL: https://data.unescwa.org/. API: Yes (powerful API query support, bulk download/query endpoints, SDMX services). Update frequency: Regular (ongoing data catalog updates from official sources; SDGs tracking). Auth required: None or free registration (public data catalog, country dashboards for Iraq, SDGs indicators including decent work/economic growth, labor stats).[[5]](https://data.unescwa.org/)[[5]](https://data.unescwa.org/)

- **Iraqi news outlets via RSS (e.g., Alsumaria TV, Voice of Iraq, Kitabat, Lvin Press)**: Local/regional news for Iraq coverage. URLs: Aggregators like https://rss.feedspot.com/iraq_news_rss_feeds/ list feeds (e.g., specific outlet RSS endpoints). API: Partial (World News API monitors ~13 Iraqi sources for structured access). Update frequency: Real-time/daily. Auth required: None for standard RSS; API may require free/paid key. Reliable for event monitoring tied to instability/youth issues.[[6]](https://rss.feedspot.com/iraq_news_rss_feeds/)[[7]](https://worldnewsapi.com/docs/news-sources/iraq-news-api/)

No prominent public NGO/think tank data APIs specific to Iraq youth/poverty/crisis monitoring were identified in searches (many provide reports/PDFs rather than APIs). Regional options like ESCWA partially address this gap. Data from COSIT/CBI is often in reports or tables rather than structured machine-readable formats beyond occasional Excel exports. Always verify current availability and terms on the sites.

Full run history: /sources

Trends · 2014–2026

Each dimension, over time.

Male youth unemployment

%
15.624.332.92014202528.1%

Intentional homicides

per 100k
No data

Internet access

%
6.046.787.42014202481.5%

Mobile subscriptions

per 100
83.693.2102.720142024100.1

Phone ownership

%
No data

Electricity access

%
98.799.6100.520142024100.0%

AI usage

%
1.511.721.92014202420.4%

Population

people
35712401.841785416.547858431.22014202547020774.0

Working-age share

%
55.958.461.02014202560.5%

Provenance

Where the numbers come from.

Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.