Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan · IRQ
Iraq
Location
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-08-04 09:07 UTC · run 2026-08-04T09
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No new government, ILO, or World Bank data releases on youth or male unemployment in Iraq appear in the last 60 days (roughly June 5–August 4, 2026).** Latest available modeled ILO estimates (accessed January 2026, covering up to 2025 data) show youth unemployment (total, ages 15-24) at approximately 32% for 2025 (e.g., FRED/World Bank data: 32.012% in 2025, up slightly from 31.726% in 2024).[[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSIRQ)[[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSIRQ) Male-specific figures align with the provided baseline of 28.1% (national estimate, 15-24). An ILO-supported expansion of job search clubs and National Employment Policy was noted earlier in 2026 but not updated recently.[[2]](https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iraq-expands-nationwide-job-search-support-address-youth-unemployment-enar)[[3]](https://www.ilo.org/resource/news/iraq-expands-nationwide-job-search-support-address-youth-unemployment) **Significant political, security, and economic events affecting young men (18-35) include ongoing regional conflict spillover.** In July 2026, renewed US-Iran hostilities led to drone attacks (e.g., on Iranian Kurdish refugee camps near Erbil on July 13 and 15), US/Saudi airstrikes on PMF (Popular Mobilization Forces/militia) facilities (July 27–28, killing PMF members and Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel), and reaffirmations of commitment by groups like Islamic Resistance in Iraq.[[4]](https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iraq) Iraq faced major oil revenue losses estimated at $40–45 billion up to June 2026 due to disruptions (including Strait of Hormuz issues and attacks on southern fields).[[4]](https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iraq)[[5]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_2026_Iran_war) New Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi faces a September 2026 deadline to disarm pro-Iran militias amid US pressure.[[6]](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/political-instability-iraq) Late June saw over 50 MPs resign from the Kurdistan regional parliament protesting a federal court ruling.[[6]](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/political-instability-iraq) These developments heighten risks of militia recruitment, protests, or unrest among young men amid economic shocks and austerity measures tied to lower oil prices.[[7]](https://enablingpeace.org/ten-key-stories-to-watch-in-iraq-in-2026/) **No notable new NGO or academic reports specifically on Iraq’s youth situation published in 2025 were identified in recent searches.** Broader references include the HRW World Report 2026 (noting fragile stability, repression, and November 2025 elections) and general ILO global employment trends projecting slight youth unemployment declines in some contexts but not Iraq-specific updates.[[8]](https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2026/country-chapters/iraq) **Internet/mobile infrastructure saw only short, recurring exam-related shutdowns in June 2026 (June 2, 11, and 28), each lasting about 90 minutes, consistent with prior seasonal patterns; no major long-term shutdowns, new nationwide rollouts, or coverage changes reported.**[[9]](https://blog.cloudflare.com/q2-2026-internet-disruption-summary/) Late 2025 data (Digital 2026: Iraq) showed high penetration—83.8% internet users, 108% mobile connections (with 86.2% broadband-capable), and 84.9% social media user identities.[[10]](https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-iraq) **Flag for significant shift:** July 2026 conflict escalation, airstrikes, militia activities, and substantial oil revenue losses ($40–45bn) represent a notable deterioration in the security and economic environment. This could elevate the national instability fuse score above the 79.3/100 baseline and increase risks of youth (particularly male) involvement in militias, protests, or economic distress, even without updated unemployment figures. No direct new data contradicts the 28.1% male youth unemployment baseline.
Source discovery
**Iraq-specific or highly relevant non-inference data sources (focusing on labor/unemployment, youth/economic indicators, and related instability factors).** These supplement the listed sources (World Bank, ACLED, etc.). Details are based on official sites and portals; most lack dedicated public APIs and rely on downloads, tables, or reports.[[1]](https://www.cosit.gov.iq/ar/)[[2]](https://cbi.iq/language/change/english/https:----cbi.iq--news--section--90--) - **Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology (COSIT, formerly CSO)**: National statistics bureau. URL: https://www.cosit.gov.iq/ (Arabic; English sections limited). API: No. Update frequency: Varies (surveys like Labour Force Survey periodically; annual/monthly indicators where available). Auth required: None (public site with topic-specific statistics sections, infographics, and likely downloadable tables/PDFs/Excel under categories like living conditions, national accounts, prices, and employment-related data). Covers unemployment/labor via household surveys and economic indicators.[[1]](https://www.cosit.gov.iq/ar/)[[3]](https://researchrepository.ilo.org/esploro/outputs/report/Iraq-Labour-Force-Survey-2021/995219159702676) - **Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)**: Central bank data on economic/financial indicators. URL: https://cbi.iq/. API: No. Update frequency: Monthly (e.g., statistical bulletins, key financial indicators) and annual (Economic Report, Statistical Bulletin). Auth required: None (public access to tables, indicators on GDP, inflation, employment proxies, exchange rates, balance of payments, and interest rates; downloadable PDFs/reports). Useful for youth employment/economic context.[[2]](https://cbi.iq/language/change/english/https:----cbi.iq--news--section--90--)[[4]](https://cbi.iq/static/uploads/up/file-173563991524858.pdf) - **UN ESCWA Arab Development Portal (ADP)**: Regional database for Arab/MENA countries (includes Iraq breakdowns; covers broader MENA/Afghanistan/Pakistan context via related UN data). URL: https://data.unescwa.org/. API: Yes (powerful API query support, bulk download/query endpoints, SDMX services). Update frequency: Regular (ongoing data catalog updates from official sources; SDGs tracking). Auth required: None or free registration (public data catalog, country dashboards for Iraq, SDGs indicators including decent work/economic growth, labor stats).[[5]](https://data.unescwa.org/)[[5]](https://data.unescwa.org/) - **Iraqi news outlets via RSS (e.g., Alsumaria TV, Voice of Iraq, Kitabat, Lvin Press)**: Local/regional news for Iraq coverage. URLs: Aggregators like https://rss.feedspot.com/iraq_news_rss_feeds/ list feeds (e.g., specific outlet RSS endpoints). API: Partial (World News API monitors ~13 Iraqi sources for structured access). Update frequency: Real-time/daily. Auth required: None for standard RSS; API may require free/paid key. Reliable for event monitoring tied to instability/youth issues.[[6]](https://rss.feedspot.com/iraq_news_rss_feeds/)[[7]](https://worldnewsapi.com/docs/news-sources/iraq-news-api/) No prominent public NGO/think tank data APIs specific to Iraq youth/poverty/crisis monitoring were identified in searches (many provide reports/PDFs rather than APIs). Regional options like ESCWA partially address this gap. Data from COSIT/CBI is often in reports or tables rather than structured machine-readable formats beyond occasional Excel exports. Always verify current availability and terms on the sites.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2024 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2024
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025