Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan · LBY
Libya
Location
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-07-29 09:08 UTC · run 2026-07-29T09
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No major new official government, ILO, or World Bank data releases on youth (or male-specific 15-24) unemployment appear in the last 60 days (roughly late May–late July 2026).** Updated modeled ILO estimates and secondary reporting indicate youth unemployment (total, ages 15-24) around 50.1% (with overall unemployment at 18.8%), alongside a World Bank-cited NEET rate of 29.6% for Libyan youth.[[1]](https://libyareview.com/66997/libyas-youth-caught-between-rising-unemployment-frozen-opportunities/)[[1]](https://libyareview.com/66997/libyas-youth-caught-between-rising-unemployment-frozen-opportunities/) These figures exceed the provided baseline of 41.9% for male youth unemployment (national estimate, 2025). Earlier modeled estimates placed total youth unemployment at ~50.06% for 2025.[[2]](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/lby/libya/youth-unemployment-rate) A July 20, 2026, LibyaReview analysis highlights persistent high rates, heavy public-sector dependence (~89% of employed Libyans per local estimates, with public salaries >50% of 2025 state expenditure), and recent Government of National Unity (GNU) measures tightening public-sector hiring (limited to approved vacancies with Ministry of Civil Service authorization) while suspending new private university/institute/school licenses for quality reviews.[[1]](https://libyareview.com/66997/libyas-youth-caught-between-rising-unemployment-frozen-opportunities/) These steps, framed as reforms, raise concerns about reduced opportunities for young people.[[1]](https://libyareview.com/66997/libyas-youth-caught-between-rising-unemployment-frozen-opportunities/) **Significant events affecting young men (18-35) in the period include ongoing political deadlock and sporadic southern security incidents.** The 2020 ceasefire holds nationally with no major violations, but the security situation remains fragile amid rival GNU (Tripoli) and Government of National Stability (GNS, east/LNA-backed) administrations.[[3]](https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-06/libya-68.php) - On July 12, 2026, the self-proclaimed “Southern Liberation Operations Room” (SLOR, operating from northern Niger per some reports) attacked an LNA checkpoint near Gatrun/Arandega (south of Tajerhi oasis, Murzuq District, on routes toward Chad/Niger). SLOR claimed captures of personnel/vehicles and pledged further operations against alleged smuggling; LNA accused it of GNU ties (denied by the government).[[4]](https://libyaherald.com/2026/07/southern-liberation-operations-room-slor-attacks-checkpoint-in-libyas-deep-south)[[5]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_crisis) This adds to southern instability and militia dynamics that could draw in or affect young men. - Earlier clashes (May 8, 2026, in Zawiya) between GNU-affiliated forces and local armed groups temporarily shut Libya’s largest oil refinery, causing casualties (at least 3 civilians + 1 security officer killed) and raising broader destabilization risks (noted in June UN reporting).[[3]](https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-06/libya-68.php) - Political track: AU Peace and Security Council discussed Libya on June 9, 2026, amid stalled electoral roadmap progress (no breakthroughs on unified government or elections framework despite April 2026 unified budget agreement and Structured Dialogue efforts).[[3]](https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-06/libya-68.php) No reports of large-scale protests, coup attempts, or explicit militia recruitment drives targeting youth in the last 60 days. Economic pressures (public-sector dominance, limited private growth) continue to constrain opportunities.[[1]](https://libyareview.com/66997/libyas-youth-caught-between-rising-unemployment-frozen-opportunities/) **Notable NGO/academic reports on Libya’s youth situation from 2025 are limited in new coverage.** A LibyaReview piece (July 20, 2026) synthesizes ILO/World Bank figures and discusses policy impacts. Older references (e.g., UNICEF employability studies with 2022 data) persist, alongside a 2025 national youth survey PDF noting lower survey-based youth unemployment (~15%).[[1]](https://libyareview.com/66997/libyas-youth-caught-between-rising-unemployment-frozen-opportunities/)[[6]](https://nesdb.ly/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%84%D8%AE%D8%B5-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B0%D9%8A-%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%B9-%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%85.pdf) No major fresh 2025 publications surfaced in recent searches. **No changes reported to internet/mobile infrastructure access (shutdowns, major rollouts, or coverage shifts) in the last 60 days.** Older incidents (e.g., 2023 Derna) and general complaints about slow speeds exist, but nothing specific or disruptive recently.[[7]](https://pulse.internetsociety.org/en/blog/2023/09/monitoring-reports-of-internet-shutdown-in-libya/) **Overall assessment:** Unemployment indicators point to rates higher than the 41.9% male youth baseline (total youth ~50%), with policy tightening potentially worsening access to jobs/education—reinforcing or elevating the already-maxed instability fuse score (100/100). Recent southern clashes add localized security friction that could intersect with youth economic grievances, though no transformative national shifts (e.g., mass protests or recruitment surges) were identified. Sources include LibyaReview (July 2026), Security Council Report (June 2026 forecast), Libya Herald (July 12, 2026), and Wikipedia timeline entries drawing on contemporary reporting.
Source discovery
**Bullet list of identified sources (focused on accessible, non-inference data for Libya youth/economic/labor instability indicators; prioritized real public options beyond the listed existing sources):** - **Central Bank of Libya (CBL) Economic Indicators & Monetary/Banking Statistics**: URL https://cbl.gov.ly/en/economic_indicators/ and https://cbl.gov.ly/en/monetary-and-banking/; API: No (downloadable files, primarily PDFs with time-series data on CPI, monetary aggregates, banking indicators, GDP-related proxies); Update frequency: Monthly/quarterly (e.g., Q1 2026 data available); Auth required: None (free public downloads).[[1]](https://cbl.gov.ly/en/economic_indicators/)[[2]](https://cbl.gov.ly/en/monetary-and-banking/) - **Arab Development Portal (ESCWA/UN-ESCWA)**: URL https://data.unescwa.org/ (country pages for Libya/LBY with labor, employment, economic, youth, and SDG sections); API: Yes (powerful API query support for datasets); Update frequency: Periodic (aligned with UN/partner releases, country-specific breakdowns for MENA); Auth required: None (free public access).[[3]](https://data.unescwa.org/country/lby/data/economic?section=labor)[[4]](https://ksa.unescwa.org/Datacatalog/Dataset/third-parties/worldpolicycenter/Do) - **Libya News RSS Feeds (multiple outlets, e.g., Libya Herald, Libya Al Salam, Al Jazeera Libya sections)**: URLs via aggregators like https://rss.feedspot.com/libya_news_rss_feeds/ or direct (e.g., Libya Observer, Zawya Libya); API: Partial (standard RSS/Atom feeds for reliable coverage of politics, economy, instability); Update frequency: Daily or as published; Auth required: None (free).[[5]](https://rss.feedspot.com/libya_news_rss_feeds/)[[6]](https://rssfinder.app/?q=libya) - **African Development Bank (AfDB) Data Resources**: URL https://www.afdb.org/ (searchable documents and statistics portals with Libya/MENA country breakdowns for economic, labor, and development indicators); API: Partial/limited (some open data downloads; no dedicated public REST API highlighted for Libya-specific series); Update frequency: Annual or project-based; Auth required: None (free downloads).[[3]](https://data.unescwa.org/country/lby/data/economic?section=labor) No prominent public API or machine-readable bulk downloads were identified for a dedicated Libyan national statistics bureau (e.g., Bureau of Statistics and Census) focused on unemployment/labor data; most labor/youth unemployment figures derive from modeled estimates via ILO/World Bank rather than direct national feeds. CBL and ESCWA portals are the strongest Libya/MENA-specific supplements for economic and labor indicators. News RSS provides timely qualitative context on instability. All listed options are free/public with no paid tiers required for basic access.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2024 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2024
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025