Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan · LBY

Libya

43
Composite priority
41.9%
Male youth unemployment · 2025
7.38M
Population · 2024
67.6%
Ages 15-64 · 2024
Homicides ·

Location

32.86°, 13.11° · ISO LBY / LYOpen in OpenStreetMap →

Priority breakdown

0 = lowest · 100 = highest

Male youth unemployment41.9%· 100p
2025
Intentional homicides
Internet access82.0%· 20p
2024
Mobile subscriptions193.0 per 100· 0p
2022
Phone ownership89.6%· 21p
2023
Electricity access73.2%· 40p
2023
AI usage20.5%· 20p
2024 · est.

Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.

Trajectory

20152026 · replay

How the scores moved.

Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.

Fuse 0.0p vs 2021
100
Access gap 3.7p vs 2021
20
Impact 4.0p vs 2021
45

Latest signals

2026-06-29 09:07 UTC · run 2026-06-29T09

What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.

Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.

Signals
**No new official government, ILO, or World Bank releases on Libya’s youth (15-24) or male youth unemployment were identified in the last 60 days (roughly late April–late June 2026).** Latest modeled ILO/World Bank estimates remain in the ~50% range for total youth unemployment (15-24) in 2025 (e.g., 50.06% or 50.057% cited across FRED, Macrotrends, and World Bank data portals; one 2024 figure at 49.52%).[[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSLBY)[[2]](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/lby/libya/youth-unemployment-rate)[[3]](https://tradingeconomics.com/libya/unemployment-youth-total-percent-of-total-labor-force-ages-15-24-modeled-ilo-estimate-wb-data.html) The provided baseline of 41.9% for males (national, 2025) aligns with available disaggregated indicators but shows no updates. An October 2025 report noted ~51% youth unemployment (~1.1 million people) as context for a Ministry of Economy and Trade scheme, but nothing newer.[[4]](https://maghrebi.org/2025/10/01/libya-launches-new-plan-to-tackle-widespread-youth-unemployment/)

**Key events affecting young men (18-35) in the period center on localized armed clashes and youth-involved protests tied to economic grievances and migration:**

- **May 8, 2026, Zawiya clashes**: Armed fighting erupted between GNU-affiliated security forces (e.g., Security Threats Combat Apparatus) and local armed groups near Libya’s largest oil refinery. Heavy weapons and indiscriminate fire were used in residential areas; at least three civilians killed and multiple injuries reported (including a refinery security officer). The refinery shut down temporarily (resumed ~May 10) with an emergency declared. UNSMIL condemned the violence and warned of risks to civilians, infrastructure, and wider destabilization. Earlier clashes occurred around May 1. These incidents involve militia/security actors often drawn from young men and highlight ongoing fragmentation.[[5]](https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-06/libya-68.php)[[6]](https://unsmil.unmissions.org/en/press-releases/unsmil-statement-on-the-escalation-of-violence-in-zawiya)[[7]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/emergency-declared-libyas-zawiya-refinery-amid-clashes-near-facility-two-2026-05-08/)

- **“No to settlement” protests (ongoing since ~April 2026, escalating in June)**: Weekly demonstrations in Tripoli’s Janzour neighborhood (near UN offices) under slogans like “No to settlement,” “No to demographic change,” and “Libya for Libyans.” Protesters blame migrants (“infiltrators”) for economic woes, demand UNHCR expulsion, and oppose EU migration deals. The June 4 protest involved sand piles at gates and breaching the UNSMIL compound exterior; security forces did not intervene. The GNU Interior Minister met activists on June 8 and voiced support. These reflect youth demographic and economic anxieties.[[8]](https://www.amnestyusa.org/press-releases/libya-eu-rival-authorities-intensify-xenophobic-and-racist-crackdown-on-refugees-and-migrants-in-libya-as-eu-seeks-to-deepen-ties/)[[9]](https://libyaobserver.ly/news/libyas-anti-settlement-protests-demographic-fears-and-migration-panic)[[8]](https://www.amnestyusa.org/press-releases/libya-eu-rival-authorities-intensify-xenophobic-and-racist-crackdown-on-refugees-and-migrants-in-libya-as-eu-seeks-to-deepen-ties/)

Positive counterpoint: On April 29, 2026, the UN in Libya launched its first Youth Advisory Team (YAT)—12 young women and men (western, eastern, southern regions) for a April 2026–March 2027 cycle—to provide youth input on UN analysis, advocacy, and programming.[[10]](https://unsmil.unmissions.org/en/press-releases-unsmil)[[11]](https://libya.un.org/en)

**NGO/academic reports**: No major new standalone 2025/2026 youth-specific reports surfaced in the search window. Relevant ongoing or recent items include the BTI 2026 Libya Country Report (broader governance/CSO context), UNDP’s “Resilient Youth for Brighter Libya” initiatives (2025 cohort of ambassadors and programs), and references to an earlier UNSMIL youth report (July 2025). A Libyan National Economic and Social Development Board national youth survey (focused on ages 15-34, ~38% of population) dates to earlier work (finalized ~2023).[[12]](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/LBY)[[13]](https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2025-08/undp-ly-youth-catalogue-2025.pdf)

**Internet/mobile infrastructure**: No shutdowns or major coverage disruptions reported in the last 60 days (or specifically flagged for Libya in Q1 2026 summaries). High penetration persists: ~14.9 million mobile connections (~199% of population, end-2025 data) and ~88.5% internet usage (~6.62 million users). 4G coverage is strong in many areas; 5G remains minimal (<1%). Ongoing modernization includes phased shutdown of outdated exchanges (first phase decommissioning ~70 by Hatif Libya/LPTIC, targeting completion by 2026) alongside fiber/mobile expansion and 4G/5G rollout.[[14]](https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-libya)[[15]](https://pulse.internetsociety.org/en/reports/ly/)

**Overall assessment**: These developments (localized violence with economic ripple effects via the oil facility and recurring youth-driven protests over jobs/migration) reinforce the baseline of extreme instability (fuse score 100/100) without a dramatic shift. Economic pressures on young men remain acute amid militia activity and protests; positive youth engagement via the UN YAT is a minor counter-signal. No indicators suggest unemployment relief or infrastructure blackouts that would alter the picture. Sources are primarily UN, Reuters, Amnesty, and data portals from the period.
Source discovery
**Libya-specific or relevant MENA/AP data sources (non-inference, focusing on unemployment/labor, youth employment, economic indicators, crisis/poverty tracking, and news).** These supplement the already-used sources (World Bank, ACLED, etc.). Details on API/auth/update frequency are based on site descriptions and typical access patterns where explicit info is limited; many government portals emphasize downloads (CSV/Excel/PDF) over programmatic APIs.[[1]](https://opendata.gia.gov.ly/english/index.html)[[2]](https://cbl.gov.ly/en/economic_indicators/)

- **Bureau of Statistics and Census (BSC Libya, مصلحة الإحصاء والتعداد)**: https://bsc.ly/ — National stats office; labor/unemployment and population data via reports or linked portals. No public API evident (reports/downloads only). Update frequency: irregular (census/survey-based, e.g., population stats). Auth: none (public site).[[3]](https://globaledge.msu.edu/global-resources/resource/16676)[[4]](https://bsc.ly/)

- **Libya Open Data Portal (GIA)**: https://opendata.gia.gov.ly/english/index.html — Government open data portal with CSV/JSON/API formats from institutions; covers economic/labor topics. API: yes (explicitly listed alongside CSV/JSON). Update frequency: varies by dataset (government releases). Auth: none (public, for academic/commercial use).[[1]](https://opendata.gia.gov.ly/english/index.html)

- **Central Bank of Libya (CBL) Economic Indicators**: https://cbl.gov.ly/en/economic_indicators/ — Official CPI, banking/financial indicators, revenue/expenditures, foreign trade (relevant to youth employment/economic context). API: no (PDF/data table downloads). Update frequency: quarterly or as released (e.g., H1/Q1/Q2/Q3 reports). Auth: none.[[2]](https://cbl.gov.ly/en/economic_indicators/)

- **African Development Bank (AfDB) Data Portals (incl. Libya Data Portal and Open Data for Africa)**: https://libya.opendataforafrica.org/ and https://dataportal.opendataforafrica.org/ — Country breakdowns for Libya (economic, social, infrastructure indicators); supports MENA/Africa focus. API: partial/no (primarily search/visualize/download tools; some bulk access). Update frequency: periodic (Bank statistical releases). Auth: none (free public access).[[5]](https://dataportal.opendataforafrica.org/ydixvvd)[[6]](https://www.re3data.org/repository/r3d100011929)

- **UN ESCWA Arab Development Portal**: https://data.unescwa.org/ — Regional database with Libya country pages, SDG tracking (incl. decent work/economic growth, poverty, labor indicators), data catalog, and multi-country MENA breakdowns (covers Afghanistan/Pakistan-adjacent themes via broader Arab data). API: no (visualization, search, download tools; data catalog). Update frequency: ongoing (sources include UN/member states, with recent indicators like 2024–2026). Auth: none (free public hub).[[7]](https://data.unescwa.org/)[[7]](https://data.unescwa.org/)

- **Libya News RSS Feeds (aggregated reliable sources)**: e.g., via Feedspot lists (Libya Al Salam, Libya Al-Ahrar, Libya Herald, UNSMIL, etc.) or direct sites like https://rss.feedspot.com/libya_news_rss_feeds/. API: no (standard RSS). Update frequency: daily/high (news-driven). Auth: none.[[8]](https://rss.feedspot.com/libya_news_rss_feeds/)

No strong public data APIs were identified from specific NGOs/think tanks for Libya-focused youth instability/poverty/crisis monitoring beyond broader sources like those already in use. Regional portals (AfDB, ESCWA) are the strongest for structured country breakdowns. Verify current access/details directly, as government sites in conflict-affected areas can change.

Full run history: /sources

Trends · 2014–2026

Each dimension, over time.

Male youth unemployment

%
41.443.345.22014202541.9%

Intentional homicides

per 100k
No data

Internet access

%
12.649.987.32014202482.0%

Mobile subscriptions

per 100
80.9142.2203.620142022193.0

Phone ownership

%
No data

Electricity access

%
66.371.376.22014202373.2%

AI usage

%
3.112.421.82014202420.5%

Population

people
6350950.36904137.57457324.7201420247381023.0

Working-age share

%
63.966.068.12014202467.6%

Provenance

Where the numbers come from.

Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.