East Asia & Pacific · NCL
New Caledonia
Location
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-08-09 09:08 UTC · run 2026-08-09T09
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No major new data releases or events in the last ~60 days (mid-June to early August 2026) significantly alter the baseline youth unemployment rate of 30.3% (15-24 male, national, 2025) or instability fuse score of 72.3/100.** Tensions from the 2024 unrest persist amid political deadlock and economic strain, but no fresh spikes in youth-specific metrics, large-scale protests, militia activity, or infrastructure disruptions were identified.[[1]](https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/new-caledonia-has-a-new-pro-france-president-what-now/)[[2]](https://www.9dashline.com/article/new-caledonias-election-settles-little) **1. Youth/male unemployment data (government, ILO, World Bank):** No new national or disaggregated releases for 2026 or updated 2025 figures appeared in searches. Prior modeled ILO/World Bank data shows youth unemployment (15-24 total) at 32.71% in 2024 and around 33.11% in 2025 (macrotrends aggregation); female youth rates have historically been similar or slightly higher (e.g., 34.5% in 2022 data). Kanak youth, especially males, face disproportionately high rates tied to structural inequalities. Global ILO Employment and Social Trends 2026 (Jan 2026) notes persistent high youth challenges worldwide but provides no NCL-specific update. No shifts from the 30.3% baseline.[[3]](https://tradingeconomics.com/new-caledonia/unemployment-youth-total-percent-of-total-labor-force-ages-15-24-wb-data.html)[[4]](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ncl/new-caledonia/youth-unemployment-rate) **2. Political/security/economic events affecting young men (18-35):** - **Elections (June 28, 2026):** Provincial/legislative polls (delayed from prior schedule) saw ~64% turnout. Loyalists dominated the South Province; pro-independence groups held North and Loyalty Islands. Territorial Congress split nearly evenly (24 anti-independence, 26 pro-independence seats + 4 centrist kingmakers from Éveil Océanien). Virginie Ruffenach (loyalist Rassemblement) elected Congress president on July 10 after coalition deal. Post-election talks with France expected but complicated by prior accord rejections (e.g., Bougival 2025).[[1]](https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/new-caledonia-has-a-new-pro-france-president-what-now/)[[5]](https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/17/43314)[[2]](https://www.9dashline.com/article/new-caledonias-election-settles-little) - **New government (early August 2026):** The 19th government took office after portfolio allocation; immediate priority is securing ~€109 million (~13 billion Pacific francs) by end-August to avert local administration shutdown (2026 budget context ~€432 million). Cross-party delegation planned for Paris. Past unrest caused ~15% GDP contraction, business losses, and added unemployment.[[6]](https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20260806-new-caledonia-races-to-avert-shutdown-as-new-government-takes-office)[[6]](https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20260806-new-caledonia-races-to-avert-shutdown-as-new-government-takes-office) - **Security context:** French forces remain deployed (mobile gendarmerie squadrons on standby); alcohol sales ban enforced around May 13, 2026 (anniversary of 2024 unrest onset) to prevent disorder. No reports of new large protests, coups, or militia recruitment in the period. Tensions remain elevated with risks of renewed unrest tied to stalled self-determination talks and inequality.[[7]](https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/pacific_new-caledonia/595197/two-years-after-new-caledonia-s-violent-uprising-tensions-remain-high) **3. NGO/academic reports (2025 focus):** - IWGIA *Indigenous World 2026* (published ~April 2026) covers Kanaky/New Caledonia, addressing indigenous (Kanak) rights, inequalities, and decolonization context relevant to youth.[[8]](https://www.iwgia.org/en/articles/iw-2026-kanaky-new-caledonia) - CNCDH report (released ~Jan/Feb 2026) on 2024 unrest details systemic issues affecting Kanak youth, including high unemployment, poverty, racial discrimination, and disproportionate repression; notes very high joblessness among young Kanaks and women. No additional 2025-specific youth-focused NGO/academic reports identified.[[9]](https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/02/18/lkxr-f18.html)[[9]](https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/02/18/lkxr-f18.html) **4. Internet/mobile infrastructure:** Positive incremental development: On or around July 9, 2026, OPT-NC (local telecom) successfully tested satellite SMS direct-to-phone with Lynk Global; further data transmission tests planned for late 2026, with potential full coverage by mid-2027. This could gradually improve rural/remote access. No shutdowns, rollbacks, or major coverage losses reported in the period (2024 unrest saw targeted TikTok/network restrictions, but these are not current).[[10]](https://lynk.world/news/opt-nc-successfully-conducts-first-satellite-sms-test-directly-to-a-mobile-phone/) **Summary flag:** Persistent political fragmentation, budget pressures, and legacy effects of 2024 unrest (economic damage, inequalities disproportionately impacting Kanak youth) sustain elevated risk without immediate escalation in the last 60 days. Monitor August budget talks and any post-election negotiations for potential impacts on services or youth employment programs. Sources primarily include diplomatic/news outlets (e.g., The Diplomat, RFI, RNZ) and organizational reports (IWGIA, CNCDH via secondary coverage).
Source discovery
**ISEE Nouvelle-Calédonie (national statistics institute)** - Name/URL: ISEE Nouvelle-Calédonie – https://isee.nc/ (employment/unemployment, labor force, economic indicators; see /chomage-inactivite and economy sections) - API: No (or not documented/public); machine-readable downloads (Excel/CSV datasets via publications and data.gouv.nc portal) - Update frequency: Quarterly/annual (e.g., Enquête Forces de Travail results, census updates) - Auth: None (public downloads)[[1]](https://isee.nc/)[[2]](https://isee.nc/chomage-inactivite) **data.gouv.nc (New Caledonia Open Data Portal, ISEE-sourced)** - Name/URL: Open Data NC – https://data.gouv.nc/ (or nouvelle-caledonie.opendatasoft.com; hosts ISEE labor, population, economic datasets) - API: Yes (OpenDataSoft platform API for datasets/queries) - Update frequency: Varies by dataset (quarterly/annual for labor/economy) - Auth: None (free public API access)[[3]](https://data.gouv.nc/explore/dataset/actualite_evenement/api/) **IEOM (Institut d’Émission d’Outre-Mer) – New Caledonia** - Name/URL: IEOM Nouvelle-Calédonie – https://www.ieom.fr/Nouvelle-Caledonie (banking/monetary statistics, economic observatory reports, business surveys, youth-relevant economic indicators) - API: No; PDF/Excel report downloads and statistical tables - Update frequency: Quarterly (business surveys, economic reports) + annual - Auth: None (public downloads)[[4]](https://www.ieom.fr/Nouvelle-Caledonie?lang=en) **Pacific Data Hub (SPC/Pacific Community regional database)** - Name/URL: Pacific Data Hub – https://pacificdata.org/ (country breakdowns for Pacific territories including New Caledonia; economy, labor, development indicators) - API: Partial (dataset browsing + some API/export options via the platform) - Update frequency: Varies (annual/periodic updates from member sources like ISEE) - Auth: None (free public access)[[5]](https://pacificdata.org/) **Pacific Community (SPC) data resources** - Name/URL: SPC.int or linked portals (e.g., via pacificdata.org; regional Pacific statistics with NC breakdowns) - API: Partial (via Pacific Data Hub) - Update frequency: Periodic (project/annual aggregates) - Auth: None (public)[[6]](https://www.spc.int/) **Local/regional news RSS (examples for reliable coverage)** - Name/URL: ISEE RSS feed (https://isee.nc/flux-rss) + major local outlets (e.g., Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes or government portals) - API: No (RSS feeds); news APIs like NewsData.io or Currents can filter for “New Caledonia” coverage - Update frequency: Real-time/as published - Auth: None (RSS); free tier for news APIs (rate-limited)[[7]](https://newsapi.org/) No dedicated public API was identified for the central bank equivalent (IEOM focuses on reports) or specific youth-employment dashboards beyond the above. ADB Key Indicators Database covers broader Asia-Pacific but has limited or no dedicated New Caledonia breakdowns (NC is not a core ADB developing member). No major NGO/think-tank public APIs specific to NC crisis/poverty tracking were found in searches. All sources are non-inference/raw or official statistical.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2024 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2024
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025