East Asia & Pacific · NCL
New Caledonia
Location
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-06-06 00:00 UTC · run 2026-06-06T00
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No major new government, ILO, or World Bank data releases on youth (or male-specific) unemployment in New Caledonia were identified in the last 60 days (roughly early April–early June 2026).** Existing modeled estimates remain consistent with the provided baseline (youth unemployment 15-24 male ~30.3% in 2025; overall youth total around 32-33% in 2024-2025 per World Bank/ILO-linked data).[[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSNCL)[[2]](https://tradingeconomics.com/new-caledonia/unemployment-youth-total-percent-of-total-labor-force-ages-15-24-wb-data.html) Trading Economics notes overall unemployment at 11.2% in 2025 (projected to fall toward 9% by end-2026), with youth figures stable but high. No updates contradict or update the baseline significantly.[[3]](https://tradingeconomics.com/new-caledonia/unemployment-rate) **Political and security developments affecting young men (18-35), particularly Kanak youth:** Tensions from the 2024 unrest persist, with youth highlighted in past violence linked to socioeconomic disparities, unemployment, and discrimination.[[4]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Caledonia_unrest)[[5]](https://insidestory.org.au/violent-often-disproportionate-repression-in-new-caledonia/) - **April 1, 2026**: ~2,500 pro-France supporters protested in Nouméa against a "frozen" electoral roll (excluding post-1998 residents or descendants) ahead of French National Assembly debates on local elections and the territory's political future.[[6]](https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/pacific/591206/thousands-take-to-the-streets-of-noumea-ahead-of-french-parliament-debate) - **May 7, 2026**: UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD) warned France against reforms undermining Kanak self-determination without free, prior, and informed consent (including exclusion of Customary Senate/Councils). Concerns include 2025 closed-door negotiations and non-consensual transfers of Kanak human rights defenders to mainland French prisons.[[7]](https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2026/05/france-risks-undermining-kanak-indigenous-peoples-self-determination-new) - **May 14, 2026 (marking ~2 years since May 2024 uprising)**: Reports note ongoing high tensions. A small FLNKS/CCAT protest (~200 participants) in Nouméa’s Vallée-du-Tir reaffirmed "the fight is not over" and honored 2024 "martyrs," warning of potential repeats amid French state actions. Broader context includes high Kanak youth unemployment and inequality fueling grievances.[[8]](https://pacific.scoop.co.nz/2026/05/two-years-after-new-caledonias-violent-uprising-tensions-remain-high/) These indicate simmering political friction rather than large-scale new violence, protests, coups, militia activity, or economic shocks (e.g., no currency crises or nickel sector updates in the period). Young Kanak men remain central to narratives of past unrest due to marginalization, but no escalation shifts the instability picture dramatically from the baseline fuse score of 72.3/100. **NGO/academic reports on youth (2025-2026):** No dedicated 2025 New Caledonia-specific youth reports surfaced. A February 2026 CNCDH (French human rights commission) report on 2024 events criticized security force actions, racial discrimination, and impacts on Kanak populations/youth.[[4]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Caledonia_unrest) The May 2026 UN CERD statement is the most recent notable international intervention.[[7]](https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2026/05/france-risks-undermining-kanak-indigenous-peoples-self-determination-new) Broader global ILO/World Bank youth employment outlooks (e.g., *Employment and Social Trends 2026*) do not isolate New Caledonia.[[9]](https://researchrepository.ilo.org/view/pdfCoverPage?instCode=41ILO_INST&filePid=13147301370002676&download=true) **Internet/mobile infrastructure:** No reports of shutdowns, new rollouts, or coverage changes specific to New Caledonia in the period. (Unrelated global shutdown discussions appeared in searches.) **Assessment:** No developments in the last 60 days appear to significantly shift the youth instability baseline. Political debates and small protests reflect persistent tensions tied to independence, electoral rules, and historical grievances (with youth unemployment and inequality as underlying factors), but without new data or major escalations. Continued monitoring of French parliamentary actions and Kanak responses is warranted. All sources are from web searches as of June 2026.
Source discovery
**ISEE (Institut de la Statistique et des Études Économiques) New Caledonia / Open Data NC** - https://www.isee.nc/ (main site with employment, unemployment, labor force, and economic indicators) and https://data.gouv.nc/ (government open data portal) - API: Partial (public service APIs available on data.gouv.nc; main ISEE site offers machine-readable downloads like Excel/CSV) - Update frequency: Quarterly (e.g., employment salarié, chômage) and annual (labor force surveys, censuses) - Auth required: None (open access)[[1]](https://data.gouv.nc/)[[2]](http://www.isee.nc) **IEOM (Institut d’Émission d’Outre-Mer) – New Caledonia economic reports** - https://www.ieom.fr/Nouvelle-Caledonie (annual reports, conjoncture, statistical annexes on employment, economy) - API: No (PDF reports and annexes with tables; some data may be extractable) - Update frequency: Quarterly (tendances conjoncturelles) and annual - Auth required: None (free downloads)[[3]](https://pubs.usgs.gov/myb/vol3/2020-21/myb3-2020-21-new-caledonia.pdf) **Pacific Data Hub (SPC / Pacific Community)** - https://pacificdata.org/ (country-specific datasets for New Caledonia including labor, employment, SDG indicators, microdata) - API: No (web explorer, CKAN-based catalogue with CSV/Excel/JSON downloads, geospatial tools; some external links) - Update frequency: Varies by dataset (often annual or as new official stats released) - Auth required: None (open access)[[4]](https://pacificdata.org/)[[4]](https://pacificdata.org/) **Global Voices – New Caledonia RSS feed** - https://globalvoices.org/-/world/oceania/new-caledonia/ (or main feeds page) - API: No (RSS feeds for reliable regional news coverage) - Update frequency: As published (irregular but ongoing) - Auth required: None (free RSS)[[5]](https://globalvoices.org/feeds/) **ESCAP (UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) – Pacific/Asia-Pacific databases** - https://data.unescap.org/ or https://www.unescap.org/ (SDG data, economic indicators with New Caledonia breakdowns as associate member) - API: Partial (some data explorer exports; primarily downloads/visualizations) - Update frequency: Annual or periodic (SDG reports, statistical databases) - Auth required: None (open access)[[6]](https://sdgasiapacific.net/sdg-data) **ADB Data Library (Asian Development Bank)** - https://data.adb.org/ (key indicators, economic/social data; limited or indirect coverage for Pacific territories like New Caledonia via regional aggregates) - API: Yes (machine-readable datasets and APIs for many series) - Update frequency: Annual or as updated - Auth required: None (free/open for most content)[[7]](https://www.unescap.org/library/databases) No prominent NGO/think tank public APIs specifically focused on New Caledonia youth/poverty/crisis data were identified in searches (World Bank and similar global sources already covered). Regional Pacific bodies like the above are the strongest non-inference options. All listed sources provide primary or official statistics suitable for direct use.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2023 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2024 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2024 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2023
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2024
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2024
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025