Sub-Saharan Africa · NGA-LOS · Metro of Nigeria
LagosMetro
Location
Structural indicators below are national values for Nigeria. World Bank / ILO don't publish city-level series. The metro pin exists so signals-agent runs can scope live web search to Lagos specifically. City-radius event filtering (ACLED) is on the roadmap.Why this metro: 20M+ metro; Nigeria not in country watch list, youth unemployment severe
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-06-26 18:00 UTC · run 2026-06-26T18
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No major shifts from the provided national baseline (youth unemployment 15-24 male: 4.4% in 2025; national instability fuse score: 19.9/100) based on available data for the Lagos metro area.** Lagos state has historically reported lower unemployment than the national average (e.g., 5.5% overall unemployment rate per Statista data referenced in early 2026 publications).[[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1119533/unemployment-rate-in-nigeria-by-state/?srsltid=AfmBOoprF2DVCix42NA8BqHtmpKACNpnxjScyME3A_8bRyjspPxeOjU5)[[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1119533/unemployment-rate-in-nigeria-by-state/?srsltid=AfmBOooEp88LMu07256K34SWl2c9-fd_9oFqXipwjzFktydsivdFgfgL) Official granular state-level labor force data from Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has been unavailable since late 2024/early 2025 in some reports, limiting precise 2026 metro updates.[[3]](https://fij.ng/article/nigerias-biggest-economic-threat-is-unemployment-but-data-to-guide-policy-missing-for-14-months/) **Local labor market/unemployment (Lagos metro-specific):** No new official 2026 unemployment figures specific to Lagos metro or state were identified in recent sources. Broader African youth employment outlooks (e.g., Mastercard Foundation, February 2026) note high informality and urban transitions but lack Lagos granularity.[[4]](https://mastercardfdn.org/en/our-research/africa-youth-employment-outlook-2026/) On June 8, 2026, federal and Lagos state officials highlighted ongoing TVET (Technical and Vocational Education and Training) reforms at a conference in Lagos to address youth unemployment and skills gaps.[[5]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHH0xeVlkcI) **Political, security, or economic events (affecting young men 18-35):** The most notable development was peaceful protests on June 12, 2026 (Democracy Day) in Lagos, involving hundreds of participants including civil society organizations, youth groups, trade unions, and activists (e.g., led by Femi Falana). Demonstrators marched (e.g., from Ikeja Under Bridge toward the Lagos State House of Assembly) demanding action on insecurity, economic hardship, high cost of living, job creation, and related issues. Security was tight, with no reported violence or major crackdowns specific to Lagos.[[6]](https://www.instagram.com/p/DZchVtSMSH9/)[[7]](https://www.facebook.com/silverbirdtelevision/posts/hundreds-of-protesters-gathered-in-lagos-on-friday-june-12-2026-to-demand-urgent/1450967097048570/)[[8]](https://www.facebook.com/punchnewspaper/posts/civil-society-groups-march-against-insecurity-and-economic-hardship-in-lagoscivi/1460731886090990/)[[9]](https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/articles/cy4ep581082o) These protests directly involved young people and highlighted discontent that could locally amplify instability risks among young men, though they remained contained. No reports of militia activity, mass layoffs in key Lagos industries, or other major economic shocks in the metro area during the period. **NGO/think-tank reports on Lagos youth (2025 publications or later):** Limited new 2025–2026 Lagos-specific reports surfaced. An Afrobarometer analysis (published June 16, 2025) on Nigerian youth (national, including urban areas like Lagos) found ~23% of those aged 18–35 self-reporting as unemployed and actively seeking work, alongside calls for government action on jobs and living costs.[[10]](https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/AD998-Nigerian-youth-want-government-action-on-jobs-and-cost-of-living-Afrobarometer-16june25.pdf) Broader or older references (e.g., Brookings on Lagos initiatives) exist but predate the scope. No major new 2026 Lagos-focused NGO/think-tank publications were identified in results. **Internet/mobile infrastructure changes:** A temporary MTN Nigeria network outage/disruption occurred in parts of Lagos state around May 4–5, 2026, attributed to a fiber cut; it affected calls, internet, and services for some subscribers but was resolved without indication of a broader shutdown.[[11]](https://www.instagram.com/p/DX7hcRriIVB/?hl=en)[[12]](https://www.tvcnews.tv/mtn-announces-network-disruption-in-parts-of-lagos/) No other significant outages, rollouts, or government-directed disruptions specific to Lagos were noted in the last 60 days. **Summary flag:** The June 12 protests represent the clearest recent signal of youth economic and security grievances in Lagos, which could modestly elevate local instability perceptions relative to the national baseline (particularly among 18–35 males), even if contained. No evidence of sharp deteriorations in unemployment, infrastructure, or other indicators. Sources primarily include news reports on protests (e.g., via Instagram/Facebook posts from outlets like Vanguard, BBC Pidgin, Punch) and Statista/Brookings references; official NBS data gaps persist. For deeper verification, direct NBS or Lagos State Employment Trust Fund (LSETF) portals are recommended.
Source discovery
**Lagos Bureau of Statistics (LBS) / EKO 360 Open Data Portal** - https://eko360.ng/datasetspage (or lagosmepb.org/lagos-bureau-of-statistics/ for reports) - API: No (primarily datasets/downloads and reports, some in testing phase) - Update frequency: Irregular/variable (reports like CPI, price bulletins, demographic data) - Auth required: None - Geographic granularity: Lagos State / LGAs **Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Open Data Portal / Labour Force Statistics** - https://nigeria.opendataforafrica.org/ and https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ (Labour Force Survey reports/microdata) - API: Partial (aggregated data portal with filters/downloads; microdata archive available) - Update frequency: Quarterly/annual for labour/unemployment - Auth required: None (free registration for some microdata) - Geographic granularity: State-level (Lagos disaggregated in reports; some LGA potential via surveys) **Nigerian news outlets RSS feeds (Lagos-based, e.g., Vanguard, The Guardian Nigeria, Premium Times, Channels TV, P.M. News)** - Examples: https://rss.feedspot.com/nigeria_news_rss_feeds/ (aggregator); direct feeds from vanguardngr.com, guardian.ng, etc. - API: No (RSS feeds standard; commercial News APIs like newsapi.org support country=ng) - Update frequency: Daily/real-time - Auth required: None (RSS); API keys often free tier - Geographic granularity: National with strong Lagos/metro coverage (events, local issues) **ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) – Nigeria dataset** - https://acleddata.com/country/nigeria (data export/download) - API: Partial (data export tools; full API access for registered users) - Update frequency: Weekly (real-time coding) - Auth required: Free registration (none for basic downloads) - Geographic granularity: Admin1 (Lagos State), Admin2 (LGAs), location-level; filter via state/admin codes or boundaries (GADM integration available) **Lagos State Employment Trust Fund (LSETF) analyses / related NBS-derived Lagos reports** - LSETF publications or NBS-linked analyses (e.g., 2023 Annual Labour Force Survey breakdowns) - API: No (PDF/reports) - Update frequency: Annual or ad-hoc - Auth required: None - Geographic granularity: Lagos State (youth unemployment, labour metrics) **Additional notes**: - No dedicated public API found for LBS/EKO 360 (focus on downloads/datasets); NBS provides the strongest sub-national labour data via state-level reports. - News RSS/APIs are the most accessible real-time local source. - ACLED supports precise Lagos filtering via admin1="Lagos" or equivalent codes. - Think tank/NGO-specific real-time Lagos youth trackers are limited; most rely on NBS data (e.g., Brookings or NISER analyses). Spatial data like LSSDI exists but is geospatial-focused.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2023 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2024 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2024 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2023
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2024
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2024
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025