Sub-Saharan Africa · NGA-LOS · Metro of Nigeria
LagosMetro
Location
Structural indicators below are national values for Nigeria. World Bank / ILO don't publish city-level series. The metro pin exists so signals-agent runs can scope live web search to Lagos specifically. City-radius event filtering (ACLED) is on the roadmap.Why this metro: 20M+ metro; Nigeria not in country watch list, youth unemployment severe
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-07-09 09:07 UTC · run 2026-07-09T09
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No significant new Lagos metro-specific youth unemployment or labor market data identified in the last 60 days (roughly May 10–July 9, 2026).** National baselines (e.g., 4.4% youth unemployment for males 15-24 in 2025) remain un-updated at the sub-national level in available sources. Broader Nigerian or African reports (e.g., ILO global trends or the Africa Youth Employment Outlook 2026) discuss continental or national patterns but do not provide Lagos-specific figures.[[1]](https://researchrepository.ilo.org/view/pdfCoverPage?instCode=41ILO_INST&filePid=13147301370002676&download=true)[[2]](https://25336566.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/25336566/Africa%20Jobs%20Clock/Africa%20Youth%20Employment%20Outlook%202026_version%20090226.docx.pdf) **Key recent event: June 12, 2026 Democracy Day protests in Lagos.** Hundreds of protesters (civil society groups, youth activists, trade unions, and concerned citizens) marched in Lagos against worsening insecurity, economic hardship, high cost of living, poverty, inflation, and kidnappings. The demonstration started at Ikeja Under Bridge and proceeded toward the Lagos State House of Assembly. Organizers, including figures like Femi Falana (SAN), called for government action on security, job creation, and rescues of captives. This was part of nationwide actions and explicitly referenced youth concerns over unemployment and living conditions. Protests occurred under tight security; no reports of violence, militia involvement, or mass crackdowns specific to young men (18-35) in Lagos.[[3]](https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZfGmj4IaCo/)[[4]](https://www.facebook.com/channelsforum/videos/groups-stage-walk-in-lagos-over-insecurity-demand-immediate-action/1359278362771319/)[[5]](https://www.instagram.com/p/DZchVtSMSH9/)[[6]](https://www.facebook.com/silverbirdtelevision/posts/hundreds-of-protesters-gathered-in-lagos-on-friday-june-12-2026-to-demand-urgent/1450967097048570/)[[7]](https://www.facebook.com/punchnewspaper/posts/civil-society-groups-march-against-insecurity-and-economic-hardship-in-lagoscivi/1460731886090990/) This event highlights persistent grievances among Lagos youth and civil society that align with (but do not quantitatively update) the national instability fuse score baseline. It does not indicate a sharp escalation or new economic shocks/mass layoffs in city industries. **NGO/think-tank reports:** No new reports specifically on Lagos youth published in 2025 (or early 2026) were identified in searches. Earlier or national/continental items (e.g., WEF skills roundtable in Lagos on November 11, 2025, or older Brookings analyses) predate the 60-day window or lack metro-level focus.[[8]](https://www.weforum.org/stories/education-and-skills/nigeria-youth-wave-skills-powerhouse/) **Internet/mobile infrastructure:** No government-directed shutdowns, major new rollouts, or widespread outages specific to Lagos in the last 60 days. An MTN Nigeria outage (fiber cuts, ~4 hours, primarily affecting Lagos subscribers) appears in older references and does not match the recent timeframe. Broader Q1 2026 disruption reviews or global reports do not highlight Lagos-specific incidents.[[9]](https://www.networkworld.com/article/4113326/2026-network-outage-report-and-internet-health-check.html)[[10]](https://www.instagram.com/p/C37IWj2N4xH/) **Overall assessment:** No developments in the last 60 days appear to shift the instability picture significantly from the provided national baselines. The June 12 protests reflect ongoing youth economic and security concerns in Lagos but remain contained and do not introduce new quantitative data (e.g., unemployment spikes or infrastructure disruptions) that would alter the fuse score outlook. Continued monitoring of local NBS or Lagos State employment reports is recommended, as metro-specific stats remain scarce.
Source discovery
**Lagos-specific (city/provincial) data sources** (focusing on publicly accessible, non-inference sources beyond the listed country-level ones): - **Lagos Bureau of Statistics (under Lagos State Ministry of Economic Planning and Budget / MEPB)**: https://lagosmepb.org/lagos-bureau-of-statistics/ — No public API (reports/PDFs available for download); irregular/periodic updates (e.g., CPI/inflation, price bulletins, GDP, poverty headcount, household surveys, transport stats, literacy); none/free auth; Lagos State / LGA granularity (e.g., abstracts of local government statistics, poverty reports).[[1]](https://lagosmepb.org/lagos-bureau-of-statistics/) - **Lagos State Open Data Initiative (“EKO 360” / datasets portal)**: https://eko360.ng/datasetspage (or related MEPB pages) — No confirmed public API (primarily dataset listings/downloads); variable/periodic updates; none/free; Lagos State / thematic datasets (health, education, economic affairs).[[2]](https://eko360.ng/datasetspage) - **Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) – Labour Force Survey / Unemployment data (state disaggregation)**: https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ (with microdata at https://microdata.nigerianstat.gov.ng and Open Data Portal at https://nigeria.opendataforafrica.org/) — Partial API (Open Data Portal supports filtering/visualization/downloads; CKAN-style endpoints likely); quarterly/annual Labour Force Survey releases; none/free; National + state-level (Lagos-specific unemployment/youth rates available via reports or disaggregated extracts; LGA possible in microdata).[[3]](https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/) - **Nigerian news outlets with Lagos coverage – RSS feeds** (examples: Legit.ng https://www.legit.ng/rss/all.rss; The Nation https://thenationonlineng.net/feed/; Sahara Reporters http://saharareporters.com/feeds/latest/feed; others via aggregators like Feedspot Lagos RSS): No dedicated Lagos-only API (standard RSS); near-real-time/ongoing; none/free; Metro Lagos / Nigeria-wide with strong Lagos focus (English primary; some Yoruba content).[[4]](https://rss.feedspot.com/lagos_rss_feeds/) - **ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) – Nigeria subnational data**: https://acleddata.com/country/nigeria (Explorer tool; full dataset access via registration) — Yes, API available (via platform/Explorer or data export); weekly/ongoing updates with historical coverage; free registration (academic/public use); Admin1 (Lagos State) and Admin2 (Local Government Areas within Lagos) granularity for event filtering.[[5]](https://acleddata.com/country/nigeria) - **Nigeria COD-AB administrative boundaries (for ACLED or other geospatial filtering)**: https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-nga — No API (shapefile/GeoJSON downloads); static with periodic updates; none/free; Admin 0–3 (states + 774 LGAs, including Lagos metro/LGAs).[[6]](https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-nga) - **African Cities Research Consortium (ACRC) / Lagos-related urban studies** (e.g., city reports, resilience strategy): https://www.african-cities.org/ (Lagos working papers/reports) or Lagos Resilience Strategy PDFs — No public API (reports/PDFs or project outputs); periodic/project-based; none/free; Lagos metro / specific urban zones (poverty, insecurity, youth, informal settlements).[[7]](https://www.african-cities.org/working_paper_32_lagos_city_report/) Additional notes: Many Lagos State/MEPB and NBS outputs are PDF or tabular downloads rather than structured APIs. The NBS Open Data Portal is the strongest structured option for sub-national labor data. ACLED provides the most direct event-level sub-national granularity for instability tracking. Local-language (Yoruba) coverage is limited in structured feeds but appears in some Nigerian outlets. No dedicated paid Lagos-specific youth crisis APIs were identified in public searches.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2024 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2024
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025