East Asia & Pacific · PHL-DVO · Metro of Philippines
Davao (Mindanao)Metro
Location
Structural indicators below are national values for Philippines. World Bank / ILO don't publish city-level series. The metro pin exists so signals-agent runs can scope live web search to Davao (Mindanao) specifically. City-radius event filtering (ACLED) is on the roadmap.Why this metro: Mindanao — separate security/insurgency profile from northern Philippines
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-07-18 09:07 UTC · run 2026-07-18T09
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No major developments in the last ~60 days (mid-May to July 18, 2026) that significantly shift the youth instability picture for Davao (Mindanao) metro from the provided national baseline (youth unemployment 15-24 male ~6.1% in 2025; national instability fuse score 9.0/100).** Davao Region data continue to show a relatively stronger local labor market than national figures.[[1]](https://www.sunstar.com.ph/davao/business/davaos-employment-rises-as-joblessness-eases)[[1]](https://www.sunstar.com.ph/davao/business/davaos-employment-rises-as-joblessness-eases) **1. Local labor market/unemployment data (Davao-specific, not national):** - Annual 2025 PSA data for Davao Region (released ~May/June 2026): Unemployment rate fell to **2.9%** (from 3.2% prior year), with employment rate at **97.1%**. Unemployed persons: ~73,000 (down from ~79,000). Labor force participation rose to 65.4%. Underemployment dropped to 3.9%. Youth (15-24): LFPR 33.3% (slight decline), employment rate improved to **91.1%**, NEET rate improved to **12%** (from 13.9%). Services sector dominates employment (56.4%). Davao City had the region's highest unemployment at 3.8%.[[1]](https://www.sunstar.com.ph/davao/business/davaos-employment-rises-as-joblessness-eases)[[2]](https://mb.com.ph/2026/05/28/davao-region-logs-fewer-unemployed-persons-in-2025) - January 2026: Davao Region unemployment at **4.8%** (PSA).[[3]](https://rsso11.psa.gov.ph/content/employment-situation-january-2026-davao-region) No May–July 2026 monthly Davao-specific PSA releases were identified in results. Local indicators remain notably better than national rates (national unemployment ~4.7–5.8% in early 2026; youth national ~7%).[[4]](https://www.facebook.com/bncphl/posts/the-countrys-unemployment-rate-rose-to-47-in-april-2026-from-41-a-year-earlier-e/122301054518354398/) **2. Political/security/economic events affecting young men (18-35):** - **May 1, 2026 (Labor Day)**: Security plans were in place for potential protests in Davao City; a DOLE job fair hired ~200 on the spot (noted in coverage).[[5]](https://www.gmanetwork.com/regionaltv/news/113915/security-plan-in-place-for-labor-day-protests-in-davao-city/story/) - **Early July 2026 (~1 week before July 18)**: Militant/progressive groups held a protest along Roxas Avenue in Davao City calling for accountability of Vice President Sara Duterte. Police deployments occurred for related rallies (e.g., >600 officers on July 1 for an INC rally).[[6]](https://www.facebook.com/GMARegionalTVNews/videos/watch-news-update-several-militant-groups-in-davao-city-held-a-protest-along-rox/1546529906980852/)[[7]](https://www.facebook.com/sunstardavaonews/posts/over-600-police-deployed-for-inc-rallymore-than-600-police-officers-were-deploye/1494437436057800/) No reports of militia activity, crackdowns, mass layoffs in key industries (e.g., agriculture, services, construction), or major economic shocks targeting young men in the Davao metro area during the period. Older/prior incidents (e.g., 2025 Duterte-related protests) fall outside the 60-day window. **3. NGO/think-tank reports on Davao youth (published 2025):** No new 2025 or 2026 reports specifically addressing Davao/Mindanao youth instability, unemployment, or related risks were identified. Broader Mindanao references (e.g., UN Philippines 2025 results on adolescent health/peacebuilding or peace advocate calls) exist but do not focus on Davao instability indicators or recent data.[[8]](https://philippines.un.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/UN_philippines_annual_results_2025_web_1.pdf) **4. Internet/mobile infrastructure changes:** - A Globe network outage (fiber cuts) affected Visayas and Mindanao (including Davao links) on or around April 23, 2026—outside the 60-day window.[[9]](https://www.facebook.com/ORORESCUE/posts/as-of-0730am-23-april-2026update-from-globe-network-outage-in-visayas-and-mindan/1422273139928732/) No reports of shutdowns, major rollouts, or outages in Davao/Mindanao in the last 60 days. **Assessment:** Davao Region labor data (especially 2025 annual) indicate lower unemployment and improving youth metrics compared to national baselines, which would not elevate the instability fuse. Recent protests appear contained with standard policing; no escalatory events or infrastructure disruptions noted. Continued monitoring of PSA monthly releases and local protest developments is advisable, as Davao-specific monthly youth breakdowns remain limited in public reporting. Sources primarily include PSA via SunStar/ regional sites and news on events.
Source discovery
**Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) OpenSTAT Database** - URL: https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/Database (PXWeb API endpoint: https://openstat.psa.gov.ph:443/PXWeb/api/v1/en) - API: Yes (PXWeb API) - Update frequency: Varies by dataset (often quarterly/annual for sub-national stats) - Auth required: None (public/open) - Geographic granularity: National and sub-national (regions/provinces/cities, including Davao Region/XI and specific provinces/cities like Davao City)[[1]](https://dateno.io/registry/catalog/cdi00001278/) **PSA Regional Statistical Services Office XI (Davao Region) – RSSO XI** - URL: https://rsso11.psa.gov.ph/ (includes Regional Social and Economic Trends/RSET and provincial pages) - API: No (primarily downloads and reports; OpenSTAT integration for some data) - Update frequency: Annual or as released (e.g., quarterly highlights, annual compendia) - Auth required: None (public) - Geographic granularity: Davao Region (Region XI) and its provinces/cities (Davao City, Davao del Norte, etc.)[[2]](https://rsso11.psa.gov.ph/regional-social-and-economic-trends) **Open Data Philippines (data.gov.ph) and related government portals** - URL: https://data.gov.ph/ (plus PSA public use files at https://psada.psa.gov.ph/catalog/central) - API: Partial (some portals offer APIs; many CSV/Excel downloads) - Update frequency: Varies (government datasets, often annual or on release) - Auth required: None (public/open) - Geographic granularity: Sub-national, including regional/provincial/city-level Philippine data (filterable for Davao)[[3]](https://data.gov.ph/) **Davao Today RSS Feed** - URL: https://davaotoday.com/feed/ - API: No (RSS feed; machine-readable XML) - Update frequency: Daily or near-daily (news/events) - Auth required: None (public) - Geographic granularity: Davao City and nearby areas in Mindanao[[4]](https://rss.feedspot.com/philippines_news_rss_feeds/) **ACLED (sub-national filtering for Philippines)** - URL: https://acleddata.com/country/philippines (Explorer + data downloads; admin boundaries via HDX COD-AB: https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-phl) - API: Partial (data access via myACLED account/downloads; Explorer for filtering) - Update frequency: Weekly or more frequent updates; aggregated files weekly - Auth required: Free account for full access/downloads - Geographic granularity: Sub-national (Admin 1/2 levels; filterable to Davao Region/provinces/cities using region codes or boundaries)[[5]](https://acleddata.com/country/philippines) **Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) – SERP-P and publications** - URL: https://www.pids.gov.ph/ (SERP-P portal: https://serp-p.pids.gov.ph/) - API: No (primarily research papers, databases, and downloads) - Update frequency: Ongoing (research releases; varies) - Auth required: None (public) - Geographic granularity: National with some sub-national/regional studies (Davao/Mindanao coverage in socioeconomic, poverty, or youth-related reports)[[6]](https://www.pids.gov.ph/) These focus on publicly accessible, machine-readable or downloadable sources with sub-national coverage for Davao (Mindanao). Labor/unemployment data is available via PSA OpenSTAT (e.g., Labor Force Survey disaggregations). No dedicated municipal API for Davao City was identified beyond national/regional PSA channels.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2024 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2024
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025