East Asia & Pacific · PHL-MNL · Metro of Philippines
ManilaMetro
Location
Structural indicators below are national values for Philippines. World Bank / ILO don't publish city-level series. The metro pin exists so signals-agent runs can scope live web search to Manila specifically. City-radius event filtering (ACLED) is on the roadmap.Why this metro: 13M+ metro; informal-sector youth
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-06-28 09:07 UTC · run 2026-06-28T09
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No major shifts from the provided national baseline (youth unemployment 15-24 male national at 6.1% in 2025; national instability fuse score 9.0/100) are evident in Manila metro-specific data over the last ~60 days (late April–late June 2026).** All available labor data remains national or broad regional (e.g., National Capital Region/NCR), with no youth-specific or city/provincial breakdowns for Metro Manila. Protests involving youth have occurred in the metro area, but they align with ongoing national anti-corruption dynamics rather than indicating acute local instability spikes. Minor localized internet disruptions occurred but were temporary.[[1]](https://www.humanresourcesonline.net/employment-in-the-philippines-rose-to-48-89mn-in-april-2026)[[2]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Philippine_anti-corruption_protests) ### 1. Local Labor Market/Unemployment Data Specific to Manila Metro No Manila metro- or city-specific youth unemployment figures (or even total unemployment at a fine-grained level) were identified in recent Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) releases or other sources. Available data is national or at the NCR level (which encompasses Metro Manila): - National unemployment rose to 4.7% in April 2026 (2.41 million jobless), up from 4.1% a year earlier but down from 5.0% in March 2026. Youth (15-24) employment rates were reported nationally (e.g., around 87.4% in April), with some earlier 2026 figures showing declines in youth labor force participation.[[3]](https://www.facebook.com/bncphl/posts/the-countrys-unemployment-rate-rose-to-47-in-april-2026-from-41-a-year-earlier-e/122301054518354398/)[[1]](https://www.humanresourcesonline.net/employment-in-the-philippines-rose-to-48-89mn-in-april-2026) - NCR unemployment was reported at 5.2% in April 2026 (above the national average).[[1]](https://www.humanresourcesonline.net/employment-in-the-philippines-rose-to-48-89mn-in-april-2026) - No updates for May or June 2026 at the regional level in search results. Baseline youth figures (national) predate these reports and show no direct Manila comparator. No evidence of mass layoffs or sector-specific shocks in Manila industries (e.g., services, manufacturing) tied to young men. ### 2. Political, Security, or Economic Events in Manila Affecting Young Men (18-35) Youth-led or youth-heavy protests have continued in Manila metro (including Quezon City and central Manila areas), primarily tied to the ongoing 2025–2026 anti-corruption protests and labor issues. These involve student/youth groups (e.g., Anakbayan, Kabataan Partylist) and focus on government accountability, wages, and related grievances. No reports of militia activity, targeted crackdowns on young men, or economic shocks specific to this demographic in Manila. Key recent events (within last 60 days): - **May 1, 2026 (Labor Day/May Day)**: Labor and human rights groups staged protests in Manila, marching toward the US Embassy area, demanding higher minimum wages and accountability from the Marcos administration. Philippine National Police deployed over 14,000 officers metro-wide. Youth and student participation noted in related mobilizations.[[4]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhZt2h1qeMk)[[5]](https://www.instagram.com/reel/DXyXC5qoFxd/) - **April 22, 2026**: “Earth Day Mobilization” protest near US Embassy on Roxas Boulevard in Manila.[[6]](https://ph.usembassy.gov/demonstration-alert-potential-protest-in-front-of-u-s-embassy-on-april-22-2026/) - **June 28, 2026**: Planned faith-based anti-corruption rally at EDSA People Power Monument in Quezon City (Metro Manila), announced June 19 by religious and civil society groups. This follows prior iterations (e.g., February 2026 events).[[7]](https://www.rappler.com/philippines/religious-civil-society-leaders-anti-corruption-protest-edsa-june-2026/)[[2]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Philippine_anti-corruption_protests) These events feature significant youth involvement but remain within the pattern of national protests rather than signaling a sharp local escalation. ### 3. NGO or Think-Tank Reports on Manila's Youth Situation (2025–2026) Limited relevant publications identified: - Life Project 4 Youth (LP4Y) hosted the Youth Inclusion International Forum 2026 (3rd edition) on June 18, 2026, in Metro Manila, focusing on inclusive futures for Filipino youth, including those with disabilities.[[8]](https://www.facebook.com/lifeproject.foryouth/posts/from-exclusion-to-action-co-creating-inclusive-futures-for-filipino-youthjoin-us/1391697746316160/) - Broader reports (e.g., BTI 2026 Philippines Country Report) note high general/youth unemployment nationally with education-labor mismatches but do not provide Manila-specific analysis or flag acute instability.[[9]](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/PHL) - Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) released studies on education/curriculum impacts but nothing directly on Manila youth instability or labor in the period. No reports published in 2025–early 2026 that indicate significant deviations for Manila. ### 4. Changes to Internet/Mobile Infrastructure in Manila Localized disruptions occurred but were not widespread shutdowns or policy-driven: - **May 12, 2026**: Multiple Globe Telecom fiber cuts in Metro Manila (e.g., San Juan, Pasig, Paco area) and nearby provinces, causing intermittent mobile data, calls, and texts. Attributed partly to construction/drainage work (e.g., DPWH subcontractor in Paco, Manila); services restored by ~10:30 p.m. Some speculation of sabotage but no confirmation of deliberate targeting.[[10]](https://newsbytes.ph/2026/05/13/globe-restores-services-after-metro-manila-fiber-cuts/)[[11]](https://technology.inquirer.net/146689/globe-restores-metro-manila-services-after-outage-caused-by-underground-fiber-cable-damage) - Minor scheduled maintenance (e.g., PLDT in parts of Metro Manila/Quezon City in mid-June) and isolated fiber issues reported, but nothing systemic or prolonged.[[12]](https://www.facebook.com/pldtcares/posts/hi-pldt-customersthese-are-the-scheduled-maintenance-activities-for-the-week-of-/1429918572501359/) No government-directed shutdowns or major rollouts specific to Manila in the period. **Summary**: Developments are consistent with national trends and do not indicate a significant upward shift in youth instability indicators for Manila metro relative to the baseline. Continued monitoring of protest activity and any future PSA regional/youth disaggregations is recommended. Sources primarily include PSA releases via news outlets, Wikipedia summaries of protests, and local reporting on events.
Source discovery
**PSA OpenSTAT (Philippine Statistics Authority data portal with PXWeb API)** - URL: https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/ (PXWeb API endpoint: https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/PXWeb/api/v1/en) - API: Yes (PXWeb) - Update frequency: Varies by dataset (e.g., Labor Force Survey quarterly/annual) - Auth required: None (public) - Geographic granularity: National + sub-national (regions including NCR/Metro Manila; some provincial/city-level tables)[[1]](https://dateno.io/registry/catalog/cdi00001278/) **PSA Labor Force Survey (LFS) data via OpenSTAT/PSADA** - URL: https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/ or https://psada.psa.gov.ph/ (search LFS) - API: Yes (via OpenSTAT PXWeb) - Update frequency: Quarterly or annual releases - Auth required: None (public; some microdata may require request) - Geographic granularity: Regional (NCR/Metro Manila explicitly reported for unemployment, employment rates, etc.); some finer disaggregation available in tables[[2]](https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/labor-force-survey) **Metro Manila Geographic Information System Hub (MMDA ArcGIS Hub)** - URL: https://metro-manila-geographic-information-system-hub-mmda.hub.arcgis.com/ - API: Partial (ArcGIS feature/map services + Downloads API for supported items) - Update frequency: Varies by layer (traffic, incidents, boundaries, etc.) - Auth required: None (public downloads) - Geographic granularity: Metro Manila-specific (city/municipal layers within NCR)[[3]](https://metro-manila-geographic-information-system-hub-mmda.hub.arcgis.com/) **Philippines Subnational Administrative Boundaries (COD-AB, HDX)** - URL: https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-phl - API: No (downloads only: shapefile, GeoJSON, geodatabase, XLSX) - Update frequency: Periodic updates (version 03 as of 2026) - Auth required: None (public) - Geographic granularity: Admin levels 0–4 (includes NCR/Metro Manila provinces and cities; useful for filtering ACLED events)[[4]](https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-phl) **Philippine news RSS feeds (Manila-focused outlets)** - Examples: INQUIRER.net RSS, Manila Bulletin RSS, Manila Times RSS, Rappler, Philstar - URLs: e.g., https://www.inquirer.net/ (RSS links), https://mb.com.ph/rss, https://www.manilatimes.net/rss - API: No (RSS feeds; third-party aggregators like NewsData.io or World News API offer partial paid APIs covering PH sources) - Update frequency: Real-time to daily - Auth required: None (RSS); paid for some commercial APIs - Geographic granularity: National + Metro Manila/urban Philippines coverage[[5]](https://rss.feedspot.com/philippines_news_rss_feeds/) **Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) publications and datasets** - URL: https://www.pids.gov.ph/ - API: No (reports, studies, and occasional datasets/downloads) - Update frequency: Ongoing research releases - Auth required: None (public reports; data upon request or via partners) - Geographic granularity: National + some regional/sub-national (NCR/Manila-focused studies on poverty, youth, education, vulnerability)[[6]](https://www.pids.gov.ph/) These are the most relevant accessible, non-inference sources matching the requested categories. PSA OpenSTAT is the strongest for structured sub-national labor/economic data; boundaries aid ACLED filtering; RSS provides timely local signals. MMDA data is more specialized (e.g., traffic/incidents).
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2023 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2024 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2024 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2023
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2024
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2024
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025