Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan · SYR
Syrian Arab Republic
Location
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-06-05 18:00 UTC · run 2026-06-05T18
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No significant new government, ILO, or World Bank releases on youth (15-24) or male unemployment in Syria during the last 60 days (roughly April–early June 2026).** The baseline figure of 29.5% youth male unemployment (modeled ILO estimate, national, 2025) from World Bank data remains the most recent cited value, consistent across sources.[[1]](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS?locations=SY)[[2]](https://humancapital.worldbank.org/en/economy/SYR) Related modeled estimates include: - Total youth unemployment (15-24): ~33.1% in 2025 (FRED/World Bank data, updated Feb 2026).[[3]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSSYR) - ILO-modeled figures from late 2024/early 2025 references: Overall unemployment ~13% (2024), with youth at 31.5% and very low labor force participation (especially for women).[[4]](https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/2025-10/Syria_Employment_Environment_Factsheet_v5.pdf) A March 2026 DRC labour market assessment report (data collected July 2025–January 2026 across displacement-affected communities in Syria and neighboring countries) highlights priority sectors for livelihoods but does not release new national youth unemployment statistics.[[5]](https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/unlocking-future-findings-labour-market-assessments-across-syria-jordan-lebanon-turkiye-iraq-march-2026-amman-jordan)[[5]](https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/unlocking-future-findings-labour-market-assessments-across-syria-jordan-lebanon-turkiye-iraq-march-2026-amman-jordan) **Political/security/economic events affecting young men (18-35) in the last 60 days have been limited and localized, with no major protests, coups, large-scale militia recruitment drives, or currency shocks reported that would markedly alter the instability picture.** Ongoing transition challenges persist post-2024, including low-level insecurity, but recent months show relatively contained developments: - Mid-April 2026 (announced early April): Damascus “Law and Dignity” sit-in organized by Syrian youth inside the country, demanding genuine political transition, transitional justice, and reforms. Organizers rejected links to former regime elements.[[6]](https://www.facebook.com/aljumhuriya.net/posts/-damascus-sit-in-demands-reform-organizers-reject-allegations-of-regime-remnants/1527625119156633/) - May 2026 security incidents (not youth-specific but contextually relevant): Killing of a Shia cleric (May 1, claimed by ISIL); car bomb near defense ministry in Damascus (May 19, 1 killed, 23 wounded); Idlib raids (May 6) targeting Uzbek militants; dismantling of a Hezbollah-affiliated cell (May 5).[[7]](https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-06/syria-92.php) - Earlier 2026 events (e.g., March alcohol restriction protests in Damascus, Hasakah protests over Kurdish signage and related understandings with SDF) fall near or slightly before the 60-day window but indicate persistent localized frictions.[[8]](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-syria) Broader context includes SDF integration efforts, sanctions relief/investment talks, and economic recovery signals (e.g., pound appreciation and GDP growth noted in 2025 data), but no acute shocks in the recent period. Violence levels have been described as reaching lows in some analyses, though fragility remains.[[9]](https://mei.edu/policymemo/syrias-path-toward-stabilization-and-how-the-us-can-help/) **Notable NGO/academic reports on Syrian youth (published or covering 2025 data) are limited in the immediate window; most recent relevant outputs predate or slightly precede the last 60 days.** Examples include the DRC March 2026 labour market briefing and the UN Common Country Analysis for Syria 2025 (published ~March 24, 2026), which discusses post-conflict pathways but does not introduce new youth unemployment metrics.[[10]](https://document.ess.uninfo.org/uninfo-production-main/d4934789-4dda-4c41-82a8-09c577bd233b_20260324CCASyria2025finalCLN.pdf)[[5]](https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/unlocking-future-findings-labour-market-assessments-across-syria-jordan-lebanon-turkiye-iraq-march-2026-amman-jordan) Older 2025 references (e.g., IOM returnee reports from mid-2025) emphasize economic opportunities and services as key barriers.[[11]](https://www.iom.int/news/new-report-challenging-economy-and-unemployment-main-obstacles-syria-returnees) **Internet/mobile infrastructure:** Positive developments in March 2026, outside the strictest recent window but relevant. The Ministry of Communications launched initiatives to improve weak mobile/internet coverage (especially indoors), including investment tracks for signal boosters in priority sites and a March 4 tender for a new 20-year mobile operator license aimed at rural and post-conflict areas.[[12]](https://levant24.com/news/2026/03/syria-opens-investment-track-to-fix-weak-mobile-coverage/)[[13]](https://www.instagram.com/p/DVu6YYHFgg4/) No shutdowns reported in the last 60 days (an earlier Kobani blackout occurred in January 2026).[[14]](https://skylineforhuman.org/en/news/details/888/syria-authorities-must-flip-the-switch-and-restore-internet-access-in-kobani) **Flag for instability picture:** Nothing in the last 60 days indicates a significant shift from the baseline (youth male unemployment 29.5% in 2025; national instability fuse score 73.1/100). Unemployment data is stable at modeled levels with no fresh national releases. Localized youth-led civic actions (e.g., April Damascus sit-in) and infrastructure investments are noted but do not signal escalation. Persistent low-level security issues and economic challenges remain the backdrop, consistent with the high baseline fuse score. Continued monitoring of any new ILO/World Bank updates or spikes in youth-specific protests/recruitment is recommended.
Source discovery
**Syrian Arab Republic-specific or highly relevant data sources (non-inference, focused on youth instability indicators like labor, economy, crisis/poverty monitoring):** - **Central Bureau of Statistics (Syria)**: http://www.cbssyr.sy (or cbssyr.org variants); API: no (primarily static site or archived reports with limited machine-readable downloads, e.g., older XLS via HDX mirrors); update frequency: irregular/limited post-2011 (pre-conflict labor/unemployment data dominant); auth required: none (public).[[1]](https://ghdx.healthdata.org/organizations/central-bureau-statistics-syria)[[1]](https://ghdx.healthdata.org/organizations/central-bureau-statistics-syria) - **Central Bank of Syria**: https://cb.gov.sy/; API: no (published time series on monetary/banking/economic indicators up to ~2011; research services for additional CBS/MoF data via request); update frequency: irregular (mostly historical); auth required: none for public data (requests may apply).[[2]](https://cb.gov.sy/index.php?page=show&ex=2&dir=items&lang=2&ser=1&cat_id=530&act=530)[[2]](https://cb.gov.sy/index.php?page=show&ex=2&dir=items&lang=2&ser=1&cat_id=530&act=530) - **Arab Development Portal (ESCWA)**: https://data.unescwa.org/ (country page for Syria); API: partial (data portal with structured access, visualizations, and some API gateway elements for Arab region indicators including labor/economic); update frequency: periodic (UN-maintained country breakdowns for MENA); auth required: none (public).[[3]](https://data.unescwa.org/)[[4]](https://data.unescwa.org/country/syr/data/economic?section=labor) - **Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX) – Syria group**: https://data.humdata.org/group/syr; API: yes (HDX HAPI for humanitarian/crisis datasets); update frequency: frequent (ongoing crisis monitoring, population, poverty proxies); auth required: none (public).[[5]](https://data.humdata.org/group/syr) - **Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)**: https://sana.sy/en/; API: no (official state news with RSS feeds available via aggregators like Feedspot); update frequency: daily; auth required: none (public RSS).[[6]](https://rss.feedspot.com/syria_rss_feeds/)[[7]](https://sana.sy/en/) - **Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR)**: https://scpr-syria.org/; API: no (reports, bulletins, and statistics section with downloadable data on poverty, economy, labor impacts); update frequency: periodic (policy-oriented reports/bulleins); auth required: none (public).[[8]](https://scpr-syria.org/) **Notes**: Official Syrian sources are heavily constrained by the conflict (much data pre-2011 or incomplete). Regional ESCWA and HDX provide the strongest structured/MENA-relevant supplements with country breakdowns. No dedicated public APIs were identified for national labor/unemployment downloads beyond international mirrors (already covered by your existing sources). News RSS is viable for qualitative signals but not structured data. Always verify current access/status directly, as sites can change.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2023 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2024 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2024 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2023
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2024
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2024
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025