Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan · TUN
Tunisia
Location
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-06-06 18:00 UTC · run 2026-06-06T18
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No major new official releases on youth (15-24 male) unemployment rates in the last 60 days (post ~April 6, 2026).** World Bank/ILO-modeled estimates show total youth unemployment (15-24) at 38.075% for 2025 (updated February 2026), close to the baseline of 39.0% for males.[[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSTUN)[[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/813115/youth-unemployment-rate-in-tunisia/?srsltid=AfmBOoo839L-CDkhDKl96WnhKPNEBs0X08wyVwtKAV7TVSWtTYHFDLAj) Overall national unemployment fell modestly to 15.0% in Q1 2026 (from 15.2% in Q4 2025), per Tunisia’s National Institute of Statistics (INS) release around May 15, 2026; youth rates remain above the national average, with persistent pressures on graduates (especially females).[[3]](https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Tunisia/unemployment_rate_monthly/)[[4]](https://en.africanmanager.com/tunisia-unemployment-slightly-drops-to-15-in-q1-2026/) No new male-specific youth breakdowns or 2026 annual figures from ILO/World Bank were identified in this period. Recent NGO assessments (e.g., Danish Refugee Council Labour Market Assessment referencing 2024 data) continue to cite ~40% youth unemployment (15-24).[[5]](https://drc.ngo/en/documents/drc-tunisia-youth-employment-and-inclusive-growth-in-tunisia-labour-market-assessment/) **Ongoing protests and economic discontent directly affect young men (18-35).** Multiple demonstrations occurred in Tunis and elsewhere in spring 2026 (e.g., hundreds marching in May against economic crisis, living costs, and crackdowns on dissent/opposition; chants including “the people want the fall of the regime”). These followed earlier 2026 actions and involved labor/media groups, with authorities bracing for more.[[6]](https://www.instagram.com/reel/DYbBcOJnOqH/)[[7]](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/17/tunisians-rally-amid-economic-crisis-and-political-arrests) The Tunisian Social Observatory (FTDES) reported 501 protest actions in January 2026 (an increase), alongside suicides among young/unemployed men (including graduates).[[8]](https://ftdes.net/en/tunisian-social-observatory-january-2026/) A Brookings analysis (January 14, 2026) highlighted risks of renewed mass protests driven by disaffected youth amid authoritarian trends and weak institutions.[[9]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/15-years-later-is-a-new-tunisian-revolution-possible/) No reports of coup attempts, militia recruitment, or acute currency/economic shocks beyond the chronic crisis. **Notable 2025–2026 reports on Tunisia’s youth situation** include the Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 1163 (published April 8, 2026), which found that job creation is the top national problem for youth; 29% of young Tunisians (15-29) report being unemployed and actively seeking work (higher than older groups); youth view the country as moving in the “wrong direction” despite some personal optimism; and education does not reliably translate to employment.[[10]](https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/AD1163-Tunisian-youth-see-their-country-as-moving-in-the-wrong-direction-Afrobarometer-6april26.pdf)[[11]](https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad1163-tunisian-youth-see-their-country-as-moving-in-the-wrong-direction-but-express-optimism-about-the-future/) Other references include the BTI 2026 Tunisia Country Report and DRC assessments emphasizing structural barriers, regional disparities, and youth engagement in civil society over formal politics.[[12]](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/TUN) **No internet/mobile shutdowns or negative coverage changes reported.** Positive developments include plans for 192 digital projects and full public-service digitalization starting in 2026 under the 2026–2030 plan, supported by ~84% internet penetration and >125% mobile connections. A 3G network phase-out is slated for mid-2027 to advance 4G/5G.[[13]](https://www.wearetech.africa/en/fils-uk/news/tech/tunisia-launches-192-digital-projects-to-modernize-state-services)[[14]](https://www.ecofinagency.com/news-digital/2302-53162-tunisia-to-begin-3g-shutdown-in-2027-central-bank-warns-of-payment-impact) Isolated mentions of inconsistent/slow access exist but do not indicate major infrastructure shifts. **Assessment vs. baseline (youth male unemployment 39.0% in 2025; fuse score 65/100):** Unemployment figures remain broadly consistent with no sharp deterioration in the latest data. However, sustained protests, youth-specific discontent (e.g., Afrobarometer findings on jobs as the core grievance), and economic pressures represent developments that could elevate instability risks, particularly among young men. Monitor INS quarterly releases and protest trends for further shifts.
Source discovery
**Here are relevant non-inference data sources for Tunisia (focusing on labor/unemployment, economic/youth employment indicators, and related regional coverage), drawn from official and public portals.** All are real, accessible public resources. Details on API, frequency, and auth are based on site documentation and descriptions (many support bulk downloads like CSV/Excel even without a full API). They complement your existing sources (e.g., World Bank, ACLED).[[1]](http://dataportal.ins.tn/en/API)[[1]](http://dataportal.ins.tn/en/API) - **Tunisia Data Portal (INS - Institut National de la Statistique)**: National statistics bureau portal with labor force, unemployment (including youth/graduates by sex/region), employment, and related indicators. URL: http://dataportal.ins.tn/en/ (main site: http://www.ins.tn/). API: Yes (REST-style time-series API for indicators; docs at /en/API). Update frequency: Quarterly (e.g., employment/unemployment surveys) or as released. Auth: None (public). Machine-readable downloads and queries available.[[2]](http://www.ins.tn/en/statistiques/153)[[1]](http://dataportal.ins.tn/en/API) - **Banque Centrale de Tunisie (BCT) Statistics**: Central bank data on economic/financial indicators, monetary stats, banking, and some employment-related or youth-relevant macro data (often cross-referenced with INS). URL: https://www.bct.gov.tn/ (Statistiques section). API: No (or partial/limited; no public developer API for bulk indicators found). Update frequency: Monthly/quarterly (daily for some exchange rates/indicators). Auth: None (public downloads, often Excel/CSV or tables).[[3]](http://www.ins.tn/en/statistiques/106)[[4]](https://www.bct.gov.tn/) - **AfDB Statistical Data Portal (African Development Bank)**: Regional database with country breakdowns for Africa/MENA (Tunisia included) on socio-economic indicators, labor, employment, youth metrics, and development stats. URL: https://dataportal.opendataforafrica.org/. API: Yes (standard data portal API support for queries/downloads). Update frequency: Annual or as updated (varies by indicator). Auth: None (public).[[5]](https://www.re3data.org/repository/r3d100011929) - **Arab Development Portal (ESCWA/UN)**: Regional platform for Arab countries (includes Tunisia + MENA coverage; relevant for Afghanistan/Pakistan-adjacent themes via broader development data). Covers SDGs, employment, poverty, economic indicators with country breakdowns. URL: https://data.unescwa.org/ (data catalog and country pages). API: Partial (query/visualization tools and downloads; no prominent public REST API highlighted). Update frequency: Varies (annual/periodic from national sources). Auth: None (public).[[6]](https://data.unescwa.org/)[[6]](https://data.unescwa.org/) - **Global Voices RSS (Tunisia section)**: Reliable regional/MENA news aggregator with Tunisia-specific coverage (useful for qualitative context on youth instability, protests, or events). URL: https://globalvoices.org/-/world/middle-east-north-africa/tunisia/ (RSS feeds available). API: No (RSS feeds instead). Update frequency: As published (irregular but timely). Auth: None (public RSS).[[7]](https://globalvoices.org/feeds/) Additional notes: The INS portal is the strongest primary source for granular Tunisia labor/unemployment data. BCT focuses more on macro/finance. Regional options (AfDB, ESCWA) provide comparable breakdowns across the target region. No prominent free public APIs were identified for dedicated Tunisia news or specific NGO crisis/poverty trackers (e.g., HDX has some Tunisia humanitarian datasets but limited API depth). Check each site for terms, as bulk access may have rate limits.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2023 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2024 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2024 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2023
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2024
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2024
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025