Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan · TUN

Tunisia

39
Composite priority
39.0%
Male youth unemployment · 2025
12.35M
Population · 2025
66.5%
Ages 15-64 · 2025
4.7 per 100k
Homicides · 2020

Location

36.79°, 10.21° · ISO TUN / TNOpen in OpenStreetMap →

Priority breakdown

0 = lowest · 100 = highest

Male youth unemployment39.0%· 100p
2025
Intentional homicides4.7 per 100k· 14p
2020
Internet access76.5%· 27p
2024
Mobile subscriptions117.6 per 100· 49p
2024
Phone ownership90.9%· 18p
2023
Electricity access100.0%· 0p
2024
AI usage19.1%· 27p
2024 · est.

Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.

Trajectory

20152026 · replay

How the scores moved.

Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.

Fuse 3.2p vs 2021
65
Access gap 4.2p vs 2021
24
Impact 4.4p vs 2021
40

Latest signals

2026-08-12 09:07 UTC · run 2026-08-12T09

What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.

Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.

Signals
**No major new official releases on male youth (15-24) unemployment in the last 60 days (post ~mid-June 2026).** The most recent INS (National Institute of Statistics) data, released around mid-May 2026 for Q1 2026, show overall unemployment at 15% (down 0.2 pp from 15.2% in Q4 2025), with youth (15-24) unemployment at 37.5% (down from 38.4% prior quarter).[[1]](https://en.africanmanager.com/employment-and-unemployment-in-tunisia-the-15-that-hides-everything/)[[2]](https://news-tunisia.tunisienumerique.com/national-institute-of-statistics-unemployment-rate-falls-to-15/)

This aligns closely with the 2025 baseline of 39.0% for males aged 15-24 nationally and Macrotrends’ 38.08% overall youth rate for 2025 (slight decline from 38.85% in 2024).[[3]](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/tun/tunisia/youth-unemployment-rate) No gender-specific male breakdowns or new ILO/World Bank modeled estimates appear in recent results; World Bank total unemployment stood at ~15.1% for 2025.[[4]](https://data.worldbank.org/country/tunisia) Youth rates remain persistently high (fluctuating 36.8–41% since 2022) with stagnation rather than meaningful improvement.[[1]](https://en.africanmanager.com/employment-and-unemployment-in-tunisia-the-15-that-hides-everything/)

**Significant protests occurred July 25–26, 2026, marking the fifth anniversary of President Kais Saied’s 2021 power grab.** Thousands rallied in Tunis (Habib Bourguiba Avenue) against economic deterioration, rolling water/electricity cuts, high living costs, and democratic backsliding. Opposition parties and the “Nafas” civil initiative organized the events, reviving slogans like “The people want the fall of the regime” and demanding Saied’s resignation plus prisoner releases.[[5]](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/26/tunisia-grapples-with-five-years-of-crisis-since-saieds-power-grab)[[5]](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/26/tunisia-grapples-with-five-years-of-crisis-since-saieds-power-grab)

These protests reflect tangible youth and public anger amid economic stagnation (e.g., investment rate drop to 8% of GDP by 2023, food inflation nearly triple the average). While not at Arab Spring scale, they highlight risks for young men (18–35), who face high unemployment, limited opportunities, and emigration pressures.[[5]](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/26/tunisia-grapples-with-five-years-of-crisis-since-saieds-power-grab) This represents a notable recent escalation in visible discontent that could incrementally raise the national instability fuse score above the 65/100 baseline, particularly if economic shocks (e.g., service failures in summer heat) persist or protests spread.

**Notable 2025–2026 reports on Tunisia’s youth situation include:**

- Afrobarometer Dispatch AD1163 (April 8, 2026): Among youth aged 18–35, 29% report being unemployed and actively seeking work (higher than middle-aged groups). Unemployment tops priorities; 58% would prioritize government job creation spending. 65% have considered emigrating (mostly for jobs), with the share thinking “a lot” about it rising sharply. 57% view the country as moving in the “wrong direction,” though 65% expect economic improvement in the next year. 78% have at least secondary education.[[6]](https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad1163-tunisian-youth-see-their-country-as-moving-in-the-wrong-direction-but-express-optimism-about-the-future/)[[6]](https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad1163-tunisian-youth-see-their-country-as-moving-in-the-wrong-direction-but-express-optimism-about-the-future/)
- BTI 2026 Tunisia Country Report and Atlantic Council analysis (Feb 2026) discuss youth exclusion, civil society constraints, rising protests/strikes (including UGTT actions), and the need to pair economic reforms with political opening to avert unrest.[[7]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/tunisia-needs-both-bread-and-freedom/)[[8]](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/TUN)

**No reported changes to internet/mobile infrastructure in Tunisia (shutdowns, rollouts, or coverage shifts) in the last 60 days or recent period.** A November 2025 Digital 2026 report noted minor declines in mobile connections and internet users by end-2025 alongside earlier speed improvements, but nothing current or disruptive.[[9]](https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-tunisia) Global monitoring (e.g., Access Now) flags no Tunisia-specific election- or protest-related shutdowns.

**Overall assessment:** Youth unemployment data show minor quarterly improvement but remain structurally high and aligned with the 2025 baseline. The July 2026 protests are the most relevant recent development for instability monitoring, signaling heightened economic and political grievances among youth that could nudge the fuse score upward if sustained. No other events (e.g., security incidents, militia activity, or infrastructure disruptions) appear in results. Sources include INS via secondary reporting, Al Jazeera, Afrobarometer, and Macrotrends/World Bank aggregates.
Source discovery
**Tunisia-specific and relevant regional sources (non-inference, focused on unemployment/labor, economic/youth indicators, or related instability factors).** These complement the already-used sources like World Bank, ACLED, etc. Details are based on publicly available information as of mid-2026.[[1]](http://dataportal.ins.tn/en/API)[[1]](http://dataportal.ins.tn/en/API)

- **Tunisia Data Portal (INS – Institut National de la Statistique)**: http://dataportal.ins.tn/ (API at http://dataportal.ins.tn/en/API); API: Yes (REST/XML access to >300 time-series indicators, including labor/unemployment); Update frequency: Varies (e.g., quarterly/annual for employment data); Auth: None/free (public).[[1]](http://dataportal.ins.tn/en/API)
- **INS Statistics Portal (unemployment/labor tables)**: http://www.ins.tn/en/statistiques/153 (or main http://www.ins.tn/); API: No (tables/downloads); Update frequency: Periodic (e.g., updates noted in 2026 for unemployment by sex/education); Auth: None/free.
- **Banque Centrale de Tunisie (BCT) Statistics**: https://www.bct.gov.tn/ (Statistiques section; bulletins like Bulletin Statistiques Financières); API: No (PDFs, tables, and downloads); Update frequency: Monthly/periodic (monetary, financial, and economic indicators); Auth: None/free.
- **African Development Bank (AfDB) Socio-Economic Database / Open Data for Africa**: http://dataportal.opendataforafrica.org/ (AfDB-specific portals); API: Partial/Yes (API explorer for queries); Update frequency: Annual/periodic (covers Tunisia/North Africa economic, labor, and development indicators); Auth: None/free.[[2]](https://dataportal.opendataforafrica.org/nbyenxf/afdb-socio-economic-database-1960-2020)
- **UN ESCWA Arab Development Portal**: https://data.unescwa.org/; API: No (data catalog, SDG tracking, country breakdowns, visualizations, and downloads); Update frequency: Ongoing/periodic (Arab region incl. Tunisia: unemployment, SDGs, poverty, economic indicators); Auth: None/free.[[3]](https://data.unescwa.org/)[[3]](https://data.unescwa.org/)
- **NewsData.io or World News API (Tunisia sources)**: https://newsdata.io/ or https://worldnewsapi.com/ (Tunisia-specific feeds); API: Yes (news aggregation APIs with Tunisia sources); Update frequency: Real-time/daily; Auth: Free tier or paid (API key typically required).[[4]](https://worldnewsapi.com/docs/news-sources/tunisia-news-api/)
- **Global Voices RSS (Tunisia section)**: https://globalvoices.org/-/world/middle-east-north-africa/tunisia/ (or main feeds); API: No (RSS feeds); Update frequency: As published; Auth: None/free.[[5]](https://globalvoices.org/feeds/)
- **Arab Barometer (survey data, Tunisia waves)**: https://www.arabbarometer.org/ (country reports and datasets for Tunisia); API: No (survey microdata/downloads); Update frequency: Periodic waves (e.g., recent on economic hardship, youth views); Auth: None/free (registration often required for full data).
- **HDX (Humanitarian Data Exchange) Tunisia poverty/crisis datasets**: https://data.humdata.org/ (search Tunisia + poverty/crisis); API: Partial (bulk downloads + some API access); Update frequency: Varies by dataset (crisis monitoring, poverty); Auth: None/free.[[6]](https://data.humdata.org/m/dataset/?vocab_Topics=poverty&license_id=other-pd-nr&sort=metadata_modified+desc&groups=tun)

**Notes**: Regional sources (AfDB, ESCWA) provide country breakdowns useful for MENA comparisons and extend to broader AF&P contexts via complementary databases (e.g., ADB for Asia). Central bank and INS primarily offer downloads rather than full APIs. News APIs are aggregator-based for reliability. Verify current access/terms directly, as public data portals can evolve. No paid-only or inference-based sources included.

Full run history: /sources

Trends · 2014–2026

Each dimension, over time.

Male youth unemployment

%
33.137.441.72014202539.0%

Intentional homicides

per 100k
4.24.85.3201920204.7

Internet access

%
43.761.378.92014202476.5%

Mobile subscriptions

per 100
116.4125.1133.920142024117.6

Phone ownership

%
No data

Electricity access

%
99.399.9100.520142024100.0%

AI usage

%
10.915.319.72014202419.1%

Population

people
11188345.211811430.512434515.82014202512348573.0

Working-age share

%
65.967.569.12014202566.5%

Provenance

Where the numbers come from.

Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.