Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan · TUN
Tunisia
Location
Priority breakdown
0 = lowest · 100 = highest
Composite = mean of available dimensions, 5th-95th percentile clipped, direction-adjusted. Instability (unemployment, violence) raises score with value. Access (internet, devices, electricity, AI) raises score with absence.
Trajectory
2015–2026 · replay
How the scores moved.
Scores recomputed historically by replaying each year's indicator values through the current normalizer. Useful for direction, less so for absolute magnitude. World Bank series lag 1-2 years.
Latest signals
2026-08-12 09:07 UTC · run 2026-08-12T09
What the signals agent found, in the last ~60 days.
Live web search via Grok, scoped to this country. Structural indicators above lag by 1-2 years; this section is what changed recently.
Signals
**No major new official releases on male youth (15-24) unemployment in the last 60 days (post ~mid-June 2026).** The most recent INS (National Institute of Statistics) data, released around mid-May 2026 for Q1 2026, show overall unemployment at 15% (down 0.2 pp from 15.2% in Q4 2025), with youth (15-24) unemployment at 37.5% (down from 38.4% prior quarter).[[1]](https://en.africanmanager.com/employment-and-unemployment-in-tunisia-the-15-that-hides-everything/)[[2]](https://news-tunisia.tunisienumerique.com/national-institute-of-statistics-unemployment-rate-falls-to-15/) This aligns closely with the 2025 baseline of 39.0% for males aged 15-24 nationally and Macrotrends’ 38.08% overall youth rate for 2025 (slight decline from 38.85% in 2024).[[3]](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/tun/tunisia/youth-unemployment-rate) No gender-specific male breakdowns or new ILO/World Bank modeled estimates appear in recent results; World Bank total unemployment stood at ~15.1% for 2025.[[4]](https://data.worldbank.org/country/tunisia) Youth rates remain persistently high (fluctuating 36.8–41% since 2022) with stagnation rather than meaningful improvement.[[1]](https://en.africanmanager.com/employment-and-unemployment-in-tunisia-the-15-that-hides-everything/) **Significant protests occurred July 25–26, 2026, marking the fifth anniversary of President Kais Saied’s 2021 power grab.** Thousands rallied in Tunis (Habib Bourguiba Avenue) against economic deterioration, rolling water/electricity cuts, high living costs, and democratic backsliding. Opposition parties and the “Nafas” civil initiative organized the events, reviving slogans like “The people want the fall of the regime” and demanding Saied’s resignation plus prisoner releases.[[5]](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/26/tunisia-grapples-with-five-years-of-crisis-since-saieds-power-grab)[[5]](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/26/tunisia-grapples-with-five-years-of-crisis-since-saieds-power-grab) These protests reflect tangible youth and public anger amid economic stagnation (e.g., investment rate drop to 8% of GDP by 2023, food inflation nearly triple the average). While not at Arab Spring scale, they highlight risks for young men (18–35), who face high unemployment, limited opportunities, and emigration pressures.[[5]](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/26/tunisia-grapples-with-five-years-of-crisis-since-saieds-power-grab) This represents a notable recent escalation in visible discontent that could incrementally raise the national instability fuse score above the 65/100 baseline, particularly if economic shocks (e.g., service failures in summer heat) persist or protests spread. **Notable 2025–2026 reports on Tunisia’s youth situation include:** - Afrobarometer Dispatch AD1163 (April 8, 2026): Among youth aged 18–35, 29% report being unemployed and actively seeking work (higher than middle-aged groups). Unemployment tops priorities; 58% would prioritize government job creation spending. 65% have considered emigrating (mostly for jobs), with the share thinking “a lot” about it rising sharply. 57% view the country as moving in the “wrong direction,” though 65% expect economic improvement in the next year. 78% have at least secondary education.[[6]](https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad1163-tunisian-youth-see-their-country-as-moving-in-the-wrong-direction-but-express-optimism-about-the-future/)[[6]](https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad1163-tunisian-youth-see-their-country-as-moving-in-the-wrong-direction-but-express-optimism-about-the-future/) - BTI 2026 Tunisia Country Report and Atlantic Council analysis (Feb 2026) discuss youth exclusion, civil society constraints, rising protests/strikes (including UGTT actions), and the need to pair economic reforms with political opening to avert unrest.[[7]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/tunisia-needs-both-bread-and-freedom/)[[8]](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/TUN) **No reported changes to internet/mobile infrastructure in Tunisia (shutdowns, rollouts, or coverage shifts) in the last 60 days or recent period.** A November 2025 Digital 2026 report noted minor declines in mobile connections and internet users by end-2025 alongside earlier speed improvements, but nothing current or disruptive.[[9]](https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-tunisia) Global monitoring (e.g., Access Now) flags no Tunisia-specific election- or protest-related shutdowns. **Overall assessment:** Youth unemployment data show minor quarterly improvement but remain structurally high and aligned with the 2025 baseline. The July 2026 protests are the most relevant recent development for instability monitoring, signaling heightened economic and political grievances among youth that could nudge the fuse score upward if sustained. No other events (e.g., security incidents, militia activity, or infrastructure disruptions) appear in results. Sources include INS via secondary reporting, Al Jazeera, Afrobarometer, and Macrotrends/World Bank aggregates.
Source discovery
**Tunisia-specific and relevant regional sources (non-inference, focused on unemployment/labor, economic/youth indicators, or related instability factors).** These complement the already-used sources like World Bank, ACLED, etc. Details are based on publicly available information as of mid-2026.[[1]](http://dataportal.ins.tn/en/API)[[1]](http://dataportal.ins.tn/en/API) - **Tunisia Data Portal (INS – Institut National de la Statistique)**: http://dataportal.ins.tn/ (API at http://dataportal.ins.tn/en/API); API: Yes (REST/XML access to >300 time-series indicators, including labor/unemployment); Update frequency: Varies (e.g., quarterly/annual for employment data); Auth: None/free (public).[[1]](http://dataportal.ins.tn/en/API) - **INS Statistics Portal (unemployment/labor tables)**: http://www.ins.tn/en/statistiques/153 (or main http://www.ins.tn/); API: No (tables/downloads); Update frequency: Periodic (e.g., updates noted in 2026 for unemployment by sex/education); Auth: None/free. - **Banque Centrale de Tunisie (BCT) Statistics**: https://www.bct.gov.tn/ (Statistiques section; bulletins like Bulletin Statistiques Financières); API: No (PDFs, tables, and downloads); Update frequency: Monthly/periodic (monetary, financial, and economic indicators); Auth: None/free. - **African Development Bank (AfDB) Socio-Economic Database / Open Data for Africa**: http://dataportal.opendataforafrica.org/ (AfDB-specific portals); API: Partial/Yes (API explorer for queries); Update frequency: Annual/periodic (covers Tunisia/North Africa economic, labor, and development indicators); Auth: None/free.[[2]](https://dataportal.opendataforafrica.org/nbyenxf/afdb-socio-economic-database-1960-2020) - **UN ESCWA Arab Development Portal**: https://data.unescwa.org/; API: No (data catalog, SDG tracking, country breakdowns, visualizations, and downloads); Update frequency: Ongoing/periodic (Arab region incl. Tunisia: unemployment, SDGs, poverty, economic indicators); Auth: None/free.[[3]](https://data.unescwa.org/)[[3]](https://data.unescwa.org/) - **NewsData.io or World News API (Tunisia sources)**: https://newsdata.io/ or https://worldnewsapi.com/ (Tunisia-specific feeds); API: Yes (news aggregation APIs with Tunisia sources); Update frequency: Real-time/daily; Auth: Free tier or paid (API key typically required).[[4]](https://worldnewsapi.com/docs/news-sources/tunisia-news-api/) - **Global Voices RSS (Tunisia section)**: https://globalvoices.org/-/world/middle-east-north-africa/tunisia/ (or main feeds); API: No (RSS feeds); Update frequency: As published; Auth: None/free.[[5]](https://globalvoices.org/feeds/) - **Arab Barometer (survey data, Tunisia waves)**: https://www.arabbarometer.org/ (country reports and datasets for Tunisia); API: No (survey microdata/downloads); Update frequency: Periodic waves (e.g., recent on economic hardship, youth views); Auth: None/free (registration often required for full data). - **HDX (Humanitarian Data Exchange) Tunisia poverty/crisis datasets**: https://data.humdata.org/ (search Tunisia + poverty/crisis); API: Partial (bulk downloads + some API access); Update frequency: Varies by dataset (crisis monitoring, poverty); Auth: None/free.[[6]](https://data.humdata.org/m/dataset/?vocab_Topics=poverty&license_id=other-pd-nr&sort=metadata_modified+desc&groups=tun) **Notes**: Regional sources (AfDB, ESCWA) provide country breakdowns useful for MENA comparisons and extend to broader AF&P contexts via complementary databases (e.g., ADB for Asia). Central bank and INS primarily offer downloads rather than full APIs. News APIs are aggregator-based for reliability. Verify current access/terms directly, as public data portals can evolve. No paid-only or inference-based sources included.
Full run history: /sources
Trends · 2014–2026
Each dimension, over time.
Male youth unemployment
%Intentional homicides
per 100kInternet access
%Mobile subscriptions
per 100Phone ownership
%Electricity access
%AI usage
%Population
peopleWorking-age share
%Provenance
Where the numbers come from.
Every dimension in the priority score has a public, citable source. Window 2014–2026. Signed-input pipeline lands with v2.
| Dimension | Indicator | Source | Latest data | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment (15-24, male) | Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force) SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Unemployment (15+, male) | Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force) SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS | World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates | 2025 | ↑ priority |
Violence | Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 | UNODC · via World Bank | 2023 | ↑ priority |
Internet access | Individuals using the Internet (% of population) IT.NET.USER.ZS | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Mobile subscriptions | Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2 | ITU · via World Bank | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Electricity access | Access to electricity (% of population) EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS | IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7 | 2024 | ↓ priority |
AI usage Estimate · proxy | AI tool usage (surveyed) | DataReportal / GWI (survey) % of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration. | 2025 | ↓ priority |
Population (context) | Population, total SP.POP.TOTL | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Working-age share (context) | Population ages 15-64 (% of total) SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS | UN Population Division · via World Bank | 2025 | context |
Phone ownership | Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population) | ITU (via Our World in Data) | 2024 | ↓ priority |
Freedom (intervention axis) | Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free) | Freedom House (via Our World in Data) | 2025 | ↓ priority |
- Unemployment (15-24, male)↑ priority
Male youth unemployment, 15-24 (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.1524.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Unemployment (15+, male)↑ priority
Male unemployment, 15+ (% male labor force)
SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS
World Bank · ILOSTAT modeled estimates
Latest data · 2025
- Violence↑ priority
Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)
VC.IHR.PSRC.P5
Latest data · 2023
- Internet access↓ priority
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)
IT.NET.USER.ZS
Latest data · 2024
- Mobile subscriptions↓ priority
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
IT.CEL.SETS.P2
Latest data · 2024
- Electricity access↓ priority
Access to electricity (% of population)
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
IEA / World Bank Tracking SDG7
Latest data · 2024
- AI usage↓ priority
AI tool usage (surveyed)
Latest data · 2025
% of internet users who used any AI tool in the past month (DataReportal / GWI), converted to % of population using internet penetration.
- Population (context)context
Population, total
SP.POP.TOTL
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Working-age share (context)context
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
UN Population Division · via World Bank
Latest data · 2025
- Phone ownership↓ priority
Individuals owning a mobile phone (% of population)
Latest data · 2024
- Freedom (intervention axis)↓ priority
Freedom in the World — total score 0-100 (higher = more free)
Freedom House (via Our World in Data)
Latest data · 2025